GULF OF MEXICO/CARIBBEAN The thing in the Gulf is still spinning, Tuesday night thunderstorms flared up, and the system was designated Invest 98L. They have since subsided again. There could be one last attempt to become a tropical depression Wednesday night into Thursday, though dry air and upper-level wind shear will continue to be resistant to that, and then models generally have the system moving inland and ending any potential. A limited amount of thunderstorms would also limit the amount of rainfall, but there could be some locally heavy amounts in and around the lower Texas coast, especially if 98L just sits there for a while. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are flaring up over the southern Gulf near the Yucatan. That is the beginning of what is expected to be a surge of moisture toward the west-central Gulf Coast (upper Texas coast, Louisiana & Mississippi) by Friday and Saturday, increasing rainfall there and injecting wetness into the non-tropical system moving across the U.S. during the holiday weekend. Some model runs have tried to show a bit of spin too; none are yet predicting there to be much development circulation-wise. Something to keep an eye on just on general principle, given the time of year and location. Then, the combo of a disturbance near the northern coast of South America and whats left of Invest 97L from the Atlantic could try to organize this weekend into early next week while on a track from the western Caribbean to the southwest Gulf. The atmosphere all the way from the western Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic is looking moist and a bit agitated. AFRICA The tropical wave and area of low pressure are getting ready to come off Africa, with thunderstorms at the leading edge already doing so. Models have been consistent in predicting it to eventually head out to sea. Still a ways off, and well watch for any change in that. https://facebook/diamondheadeastweather My weather website is open 24/7 darrylmeltondiamondheadweather/index.html
Posted on: Wed, 27 Aug 2014 23:00:14 +0000