Good Morning, What has turned out to be the seasons most dynamic winter storm is in the process of winding down early this morning… Weve seen just about everything the past 24 hours: -- A good thumping snow yesterday morning, which extended all the way to southern New England… Falling at the rate of 2-3 inches per hour in spots, the snow totals on the front end of this Noreaster overachieved in coastal communities (especially on Long Island), where we thought thered be a quicker change to ice and rain… -- The changeover eventually did occur during the morning and midday hours in most areas located within 30 miles of I-95… In fact, the precipitation even changed to rain in some places it wasnt expected, like in Allentown and Reading, PA… -- The so-called dry slot opened up during midday and early in the afternoon along the mid Atlantic coast, bringing a relative LULL in most forms of precipitation in the big cities anywhere between 1 and 7 p. m… Meanwhile, the heaviest snow bands managed to push farther north and west than previously thought, resulting in a 6-10 inch snow accumulation across much of central Pennsylvania… -- As a strong impulse of upper-level energy in Virginia and Maryland energized the low pressure system out over the ocean, resulting in rapid intensification of it… And, THUNDER AND LIGHTNING occurred along the I-95 corridor between 5 p.m. and midnight… It did accompany pockets of rain that were heavy enough (combined with the snow on the ground) to cause some street and highway flooding problems… -- Lastly, some heavy backlash snow, an aspect that the ECMWF was consistent in showing for a few days, crept to the northeast during the night… All forms of precipitation to changed back over to snow, which has accumulated a general 1-3 inches… Colder air getting pulled down from the north also was driven by wind gusts in excess of 35 mph… There were some aspects of this storm that worked out very well, including our pinning down the correct arrival times, realizing how strong the winds would be, and that this would be a two-part storm scenario… Using the European model as guidance, quantitative precipitation amounts (or, the liquid equivalent) were forecasted quite well… If this had been all rain, it would have generated anywhere from 1.00 to 2.00 inches, and this idea was right on the money… But, with so much disagreement in other details of this powerful storm amongst these various models, its also obvious that applying a blended approach does have its pros and its cons… Well, lets do all this again.. How about in another five or ten years?? Today will still be rather windy, but well also get a chance to dry out as this Noreaster departs… Temperatures will wind up in the upper 30s to around 40 this afternoon with some sun returning… If the expression: Theres no rest for the weary ever applied to a weather pattern, this one would qualify!! The focus of our attention will be turning quickly to a clipper, which will be racing in from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late tonight and early tomorrow… This will bring clouds back, and it should also deposit a general 1-3 of snow across much of the mid Atlantic region, roughly between the hours of 6 a.m. and 4 p.m. tomorrow (ending early in PA, but much later in eastern NY and New England)… This might not seem like much compared with what weve had to endure recently, but the clipper will unleash a fresh batch of cold air -- so daytime temperatures on Sunday will probably fail to get back to the freezing mark… Theres been talk of a second clipper for Sunday/Sunday night… Both the N.A.M. and European models have a batch of snow falling apart Sunday evening over central Pennsylvania, and the G.F.S. simply loses this feature altogether… So, we wont be playing this other feature up too much… After a chilly Presidents Day, another fast-moving wave of low pressure gliding into the Northeast can produce some snow, sleet or rain Monday night into Tuesday… After that, it appears that a temporary break in this cold and frequently snowy weather pattern will be unfolding -- there could be some rain late next week, but because air originating from the Pacific Ocean should reach the East Coast, temperatures should also manage to climb well into the 40s and lower 50s by Thursday… Have a good and safe weekend!!!
Posted on: Fri, 14 Feb 2014 08:20:11 +0000
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