Good Saturday morning! Its kinda funny, but the way I feel the day before we get a big weather event is like what happens on an airplane as it starts to land. The flight attendant comes on the intercom and says, Make sure your tray tables are in the upright and locked position and all trash has been put away in preparation for landing. I feel that way this morning. ALL of the computer models are in amazing agreement this morning. The snow is coming tomorrow and the forecast amounts of snow arent all that high, but they could cause a few issues across the area by Sunday night and on our way back to work and school on Monday morning. First, todays forecast. Its actually going to be a little more tricky than Sundays based on the fact that the Arctic air will be retreating this morning from the southwest to the northeast....then the cold front starts knocking on our front door and the cold air comes back to the southwest with a second surge of Arctic air this afternoon. Need a visual as to what Im talking about? Check out the attached NAM (North American Computer Models) forecast of temperatures at 3pm. Notice something interesting? Yes, it has Amarillo at a warm 65, but its 49 in Guymon and Perryton as the Arctic air starts getting a second push and begins to move back over the rest of the area. You will notice on the attached KVII forecast for high temperatures today that it ranges from the 40s in Guymon, Perryton and Canadian to the 60s to near 70 degrees over Eastern New Mexico where plenty of sunshine and warmer temperatures will occur. Winds today will blow from the west and southwest at 10-20 mph this morning as the front retreats, then shift back around to the north and northeast this afternoon at 10-20 mph as the front blows back through. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, but more cloud cover is expected to cloud up this afternoon. Then, it hits....again! The MUCH colder air will blow (literally) into the area tonight with north winds at 20-30 mph and some higher gusts possible. Temperatures will tumble back into the teens and 20s by sunrise tomorrow and wind chill values will be back around zero...if not a few degrees below zero by the time you wake up Sunday morning. It is very possible that the OK Panhandle, NE NM and the far northern TX Panhandle (Dalhart, Stratford, Perryton, Spearman and Booker) could see some snow falling by sunrise on Sunday, but the best chances of snow will occur during the daytime hours on Sunday. So, Im sure the biggest question you have for me is..How much snow am I going to get? Ive attached 4 different forecast scenarios for you via the European Computer Model, GFS (American, or Global Forecasting System Computer Model), the Canadian Computer Model and the NAM (North American Computer Model). Notice something interesting? Yes, they all pretty much agree! We talked about that a few days ago that when these approaching storm systems can be analyzed by the weather balloon network that we have, the clarity and consistency of these computer model forecasts goes WAY up! Well, they all agree that the most snow that our area will receive will be in the 2-4 inch range with a large, widespread 1-2 inch over nearly all of the area. So, no matter where you live, 1-2 inches of snow appears VERY likely. The 2-4 area is a little up for grabs...still. The European and GFS have this area over the OK Panhandle and the TX Panhandle along and north of the Canadian River...so cities like Dalhart, Dumas, Hartley, Channing, Stratford, Spearman, Gruver, Borger, Perryton and Booker could get 2-4 inches of snow IF these models are right. The NAM and Canadian are more along Interstate 40 and have the heaviest snowfall from Amarillo to Claude to Shamrock with cities like Pampa, Wheeler, McLean and Panhandle also in the mix for 2-4 inches of snow. Regardless of which model is right, its a good idea to make preparations now for a snow that wont be crippling, but could cause some travel issues along local roads and highways by Sunday afternoon. So, when does it end? All the models agree that by the time the sun sets Sunday, most of the snow will be finishing up and heading southeast toward Wichita Falls, Abilene and San Angelo. Yes, it might end up snowing lightly down that way as well. I would simply plan on allowing for some extra driving time on the way to work and school Monday morning as the roads will have some snow on them and it could be a little slick. Monday will start the warm-up and we will see high temperatures rise into the mid 30s to the lower 40s by late day and the snow will begin to melt in earnest and may be completely gone by Monday afternoon. Winds will blow from the northwest in the morning at 5-15 mph, then shift around to the north or northeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will be even warmer with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and highs warming into the 40s on Tuesday throughout the area...to the 50s throughout the area on Wednesday! Winds will swing back around to the southwest at 5-15 mph Tuesday morning...increasing to the 10-20 mph range by the afternoon. Wednesdays winds will be interesting as they begin the day blowing from the southwest at 5-15 mph, but a wind shift line will push through causing the winds to blow from the northeast at 5-15 mph. Another cold front, but this one MUCH weaker, will blow through the area Thursday morning switching our winds back around to the northeast at 10-20 mph, but not really dropping our temperatures that much as highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s prevail under mostly sunny skies. TGI Friday will also be mild with mostly sunny skies and highs rising to the lower to mid 50s. Theres a little discrepancy on the models for next Saturday and Sunday as the European wants to drop the temperatures dramatically as more cold air shows up and we see highs in the 30s to around 40 degrees. The GFS wants to warm us up into the 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies! We will keep you updated and Ill have more on next weekends forecast tomorrow morning around 6am. Have a great day!
Posted on: Sat, 15 Nov 2014 12:08:40 +0000
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