Good Sunday everyone.... Update on Significant East Coast Storm. Hi all....sitting here going thru all the data and I want to give you the very latest on Tuesday thru Thursdays storm...... All the data....and I mean all are target a rapidly developing storm on the Mid Atlantic Coast....off of Chessie Bay or off the NJ Coast by Tuesday evening. Tremendous energy dies down from the Great Lakes, captures this storm at upper levels, we call this Cut Off....which means it slows down and in some cases doesnt move....these are the storms that can cause very long duration events. Impacts.... Snow arrives Tuesday mid to lat morning.....and continues. Snow could mix with sleet and rain (possibly fr rain) late in the da and at night. A heavy mix likely....trending more snow west of the Hudson....there could even be some rain well south and east. Strong ENE winds will be an issue ESP in the higher elevations Wednesday, the storm either doesnt move or drifts slowly east just south of Long Island....wrap around moisture moves n a the temps may slowly drop....this would mean any mixed precip could go back to all snow. The snow will likely be accumulating...... On Thursday, Believe it or not, this storm will either stall here or drift up towards Boston.....when this happens you are basically in the backlash.....and bands of light to moderate snow will continue....there will be lulls...other Times it picks up. Even on Friday, this storm will still have impacts, spinning slowly around Eastern New England.....so more snow showers. Snowfall Amounts..... Obviously in this sort of dynamic system the fine details will need to be worked out. It seems very likely, heavy snow in excess of 8 will fall west of the Hudson Valley....ESP the Hill towns and Catskills......all other areas are in that gray zone of some mixing......BUT.....and this is a big BUT.... As this storms really winds up, just a little cold air circulating in late Tuesday night and Wednesday will likely change most areas over to heavy snow.....so be prepared. These are the type of storms that can produce feet of snow in narrow bands....where that will happen is still to early. Monday will be the key day to pin down the accumulations....just be prepared everyone for a High Impact storm..... These are three models we use...Euro....GFS......and NAM.......notice the upper left hand corner for the surface, all in great agreement on the powerful storm by 7pm Tuesday.....the lower right hand corner is the precip amount and the temps at 5,000ft....key for rain or snow....all three have that line almost on top of Albany......
Posted on: Sun, 07 Dec 2014 17:35:30 +0000
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