Good Sunday morning! Again this morning, we are waking up to fog and in the case of cities like Dumas, freezing fog! (Freezing fog occurs when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder and fog develops. Instead of moisture forming on surfaces when the water droplet that makes up the fog occurs, it is ice and specifically, something beautiful called “hoar frost”. It makes very beautiful ice crystals on trees, cars, roofs and any other exposed surface. Kind of neat, but be careful on bridges and overpasses, especially the one on Highway 87 heading west of Dumas going toward the airport (the new one that was just built). Since that structure is elevated, it will accumulate ice on it faster than the road. The forecast for this week remains pretty much unchanged from what we talked about yesterday. The forecast weather for Christmas also is unchanged…windy/breezy and warm with highs forecast by the European (66), GFS (Global Forecasting System, or American Model) of 64 and GFS-13 of 62 all about what we expected yesterday. Just like the past few days, I’ve attached the computer model data with the date “25 DEC” highlighted in blue so you can tell which forecast is for Christmas Day. The main problem will be the wind with the models showing 20-30 mph sustained winds likely and some gusts to 40-50 mph possible. Whether or not this causes areas of blowing dust remains to be seen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did kick up some dust. The last day of these strong winds around here did cause some blowing dust! Okay, the good news about today’s weather is that the fog, low clouds and drizzle will get out of here faster than it did yesterday, which was faster than Friday! We will have a west and southwest wind today at 5-15 mph this morning that will usher in some drier air faster and erode away that fog. In the eastern Panhandle (Booker, Canadian, Wheeler, Shamrock, Wellington, Childress, Memphis and Paducah), you folks may have to wait until after lunch for the fog to go away. High temperatures will rise into the 50s to even the 60s today over most of the area. There may be a few cities, such as Beaver, OK, Booker and Perryton that make it to the upper 40s to near 50, but the bottom line is that it should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. I’ve attached the KVII Computer Forecast Model showing our predicted high of 55 degrees and the NAM Computer model pretty much agrees. Tonight, we might see some low clouds and fog return to the eastern Panhandles by sunrise on Monday, but it’s doubtful, as it appears now, that the fog will return to Amarillo and Canyon. The reason why is the continuation of the west and southwest wind overnight keeping some drier air in place. Low temperatures tonight will drop back into the 20s and 30s under partly cloudy skies. Monday will be a day in which another upper-level storm system is heading this way and a cold front will move through as well. This pocket of cold air aloft is a little different from the ones that we have seen lately because it is moving from the northwest to the southeast. So, it will be “scraping up against” the mountains of Colorado during the day and then across New Mexico and the western Panhandles (Boise City, Dalhart, Hartley, Channing, Vega, Adrian, Hereford, Dimmitt & Friona) Monday night and early Tuesday. The NAM Computer Model is interestingly fast with this disturbance and shows a few showers and t-storms, primarily over the western Panhandles…DURING THE DAY TOMORROW! The other computer models aren’t buying this “faster” approach and keep the rain (mixed with some snow) over the western Panhandles for Monday night and early Tuesday. So, what about snowfall amounts? I’ve attached the European’s Snowfall forecast and it is NOT excited about anything as far as now goes. In fact, none of the models (European, GFS-13, GFS, Canadian or NAM) have anything over an inch for our area and many of them barely show a trace with temperatures expected to stay at or above freezing over nearly all of the area. Now, if you live around Des Moines, NM, at 6600 feet in elevation, you will be cold enough to have it snow and your area might get an inch or two out of this. The rest of us may see some snowflakes mixed in with the snow, but nothing major or causing travel problems are expected right now. Temperatures will fall into the 30s primarily and the upper 20s around Clayton and the rest of Union Co., NM. Winds will shift around to the northwest and north at 15-25 mph with some gusts to 35-40 mph, causing wind chills in the 10s and 20s, but remember that wind chill is a HUMAN thing and just because the wind chill is below freezing does NOT mean that freezing precipitation or roads are expected! Tuesday will be colder and more than likely, cloudier than Monday. High temperatures in the 40s to around 50 are expected with breezy northwest and north winds at 15-25 mph and gusting to 35-40 mph expected throughout the morning, then tapering off just slightly in the afternoon hours. Mostly cloudy morning skies will become mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the afternoon. Christmas Eve looks warmer, sunnier and if you are travelling somewhere through our area…no travel problems related to the weather at all! High temperatures will rise into the 50s throughout the area as our winds swing back around to the southwest at 10-20 mph in the afternoon after southeast winds at 5-15 mph occur to begin the day. Santa shouldn’t have any issues at all navigating the skies Wednesday night! Christmas Day looks…windy. I’ve attached the European and GFS-13s wind forecast for Noon on Christmas. Check out the legend on the right-side of these pictures, but the blue shaded areas are places where winds of at least 15-25 mph are expected (gusting to 35-40 mph) while the green is where winds of at least 20-30 mph (gusting to 40-50 mph) are expected to occur. The GFS-13 is windier than the European, but you get the idea. Get ready for a windy day on Christmas with the potential of some blowing dust, especially Christmas afternoon. Now, it will be a “warm wind’ blowing with highs in the 60s, but when you take the wind chill factor into account, it will feel like the 40s and 50s. There’s definitely NO snow in the forecast for Christmas, so we may end up with a “Brown Christmas” due to blowing dust vs. a “White Christmas” caused by snow….lovely! The reason for all that wind, a strong upper-level disturbance, will push through Christmas night and drop a cold front into and through the area Thursday night and early Friday. High temperatures on Friday will drop about 20 degrees from the 60s to the 40s and if the European and GFS is right…maybe not out of the 30s! It will be breezy Friday morning, but not as windy as what we are expecting on Christmas and this time, it will be a COLD wind blowing, causing wind chills in the teens and single digits Friday morning! Skies may be cloudy to begin the day on Friday, but we should see some clearing of the skies by Friday afternoon as the upper-level disturbance moves away. Next Saturday and Sunday will be days to warm back up as many of us drive back home after visiting “Grandma’s House”. We should have pretty nice driving weather around here both days with highs in the 40s on Saturday, under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies….to around 50 next Sunday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected as well. Winds will blow from the southeast Saturday morning at 5-15 mph, then shift to the south at 5-15 mph in the afternoon. Sunday’s winds will be a little stronger, blowing from the south at 5-15 mph in the morning, then the southwest at 10-20 mph in the afternoon hours. By the way, I’ve attached the European and Canadian Computer Model forecast for New Year’s Day. Notice that BIG chunk of Arctic air moving our way. Well, we will see what occurs and keep an eye on that, but IF these two models are onto something, it could be very cold to begin 2015 NEXT Thursday. Time will tell. That’s the “forecast discussion” for me today. Take care, have a blessed Sunday and I’ll be back here tomorrow morning around 6am (CST) with another update on your weather!
Posted on: Sun, 21 Dec 2014 12:23:25 +0000
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