Good TGI Friday morning! For those of you who want/need some rain, it looks like the forecast is getting wetter! Now, the rain chances will be slight at first, but increasing mid-week next week as a more, powerful upper-level storm system heads our way. For today, we will see mostly sunny skies this morning, but cloud cover will increase throughout the day as a weakening upper-level storm system heads our way. Right now, the storm system is near the Baja California, Mexico, area. Ive attached the KVII Computer Forecast Model showing the forecast for 5pm today and then for 5pm tomorrow. Winds will shift from the northeast at 5-15 mph this morning, then the east at 5-15 mph this afternoon. We will see a noon temperature of 69 degrees and a 5pm high temperature of 74 degrees. Tonight will feature mostly cloudy skies, light southeast winds at 5-15 mph. The high school football games tonight will be nearly perfect as far as the weather goes with light easterly winds at 5-15 mph and kickoff temperatures around 70 degrees that will drop to around 65 degrees by the 4th quarter. Get out and cheer on the hometown team! Tomorrow will have mostly cloudy skies and a few isolated showers and even a few t-storms! Now, before you think that it will be raining ALL day long...it wont. Check out the attached NAM (North American Model) showing isolated to widely scattered showers and t-storms over mainly Eastern NM tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures will only rise to the 60s to around 70 degrees by late day. Winds will shift from the southeast at 5-15 mph Saturday morning to the south at 10-20 mph by tomorrow afternoon. As far as rainfall amounts go, our KVII Computer Model has around .15 to .25 of rain for Clovis and Portales with less than .10 for Amarillo & Canyon. There will be other locations that just get a trace of rain....if that. So, dont cancel any outdoor plans tomorrow, but you might want to have a Plan B just in case rain interrupts your plans. We may wake up to mostly cloudy to cloudy skies Sunday morning, but skies will clear out as the weakening upper-level storm system moves away and our skies start to clear out by the afternoon hours. High temperatures will rise into the 70s throughout the area as winds blow from the south and southwest at 10-20 mph during the day. As we head back to work and school on Monday, we can expect teh warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s by late day. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy throughout the day. Another upper-level storm system will start heading our way on Tuesday and we could see a few, isolated t-storms by Tuesday afternoon. Most of us will stay dry with high temperatures a few degrees cooler in the 70s to around 80 degrees by late day. Winds will blow from the south at 10-20 mph throughout the day. Better rain chances are expected on Wednesday with widely scattered showers and t-storms and even cooler high temperatures around 70 degrees by late day. Winds will blow from the south at 10-20 mph throughout the day. Ive attached the GFS (American or Global Forecast System Model), European and Canadian Computer Models for the Wednesday through Thursday time frame. The European Model hasnt wavered one bit from its forecast yesterday. In fact, it is even wetter for our area than it was yesterday! The GFS is doing what it normally does...follow in the Europeans footsteps and is now showing the rainfall....that the European showed yesterday! The Canadian hasnt caught on yet and is pretty much....dry. We will see if the Canadian joins the rain parade tomorrow. The best rain chances look to be on Thursday and if you check out the Deterministic model data from the European and GFS, the rain totals look pretty good! The European is the wettest with over an inch of rain for Amarillo and Canyon and the GFS...playing catch up is showing around .33.....that may change tomorrow. Regardless, while this is good news for most of us that have lawns, I was driving in the southeastern TX Panhandle yesterday in Memphis and Wellington and saw a LOT of cotton that is either being harvested or getting close. This rain will decrease the quality of the cotton....so the cotton farmers wont be smiling about that. We will see a backdoor cold front move from the east to the west Thursday morning switching our winds around to the east at 5-15 mph by Thursday afternoon. High temperatures will drop into the 60s thanks to the cloud cover, rain chances and slightly cooler air moving in from the east during the day. We will see the rain chances decrease next Friday morning and IF everything goes as planned. High temperatures will rise back to near 70 degrees with light and variable winds. Thats a look at THIS TGI Friday mornings weather! Take care, have a great day and Ill be back tomorrow morning around 6am with another forecast discussion. See you then!
Posted on: Fri, 17 Oct 2014 10:52:23 +0000
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