Good TGI Friday morning! Here’s what’s making “news” in today’s “forecast discussion!” 1) It’s going to be sunny, breezy & warmer today! Enjoy! 2) It will be slightly “cooler” tomorrow and still breezy. But we will warm up quickly with less wind on Sunday & Monday! 3) Today’s snowfall forecast for Wednesday and Thursday favors New Mexico with the heaviest snow (6-12”?) with 3” or so for the TX /OK Panhandles. What has me worried is the rain/snow line is near the TX Panhandle, so we could see some freezing rain/sleet before it changes over to snow. This TGI Friday will be fantastic, but it will be cold this morning. You will need the jacket or coat if you are getting ready to head out the door, but you can chunk that coat in the backseat this afternoon as high temperatures rise into the 60s over nearly all of the area with the exception of Eastern New Mexico and especially the Clovis/Portales area where some remaining snow is still holding on, but it will get a good “meltdown” today! Winds will blow from the southwest at 5-15 mph this morning, but will increase to the 15-25 mph average range with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph possible as well. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny, so abundant sunshine can be expected! I’ve attached the KVII Computer Model data for 5pm today along with the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Model) and the NAM (North American Computer Model) forecast for this afternoon showing any rain for us either in northern Mexico or Florida. Everything is all clear around here! Tonight will feature a cold front that will start moving into the area and will be along Interstate 40 by sunrise tomorrow. Winds will blow from the southwest at 10-20 mph tonight, then shift around to the northwest by sunrise tomorrow morning. Skies will be clear to mostly clear tonight as low temperatures drop into the 20s and 30s. Of course, wind chill values will drop to the upper teens to around 20 degrees. Saturday’s weather will also feature breezy winds, but this time, northerly winds at 15-25 mph will occur. Normally, a breezy north wind means frigid temperatures, but not this time around. Thanks to upper-level ridge of high pressure (sinking air aloft) high temperatures will still be slightly above average and primarily in the 50s. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with a few patches of high clouds drifting by occasionally. Saturday night and early Sunday will be a typically cold night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will drop into the 20s to around 30 degrees by sunrise on Sunday as northerly winds Saturday evening shifts around to the southwest at 5-15 mph in the early morning hours. The weekend will end on a warm (and breezy) note with high temperatures rising back into the 60s and if you live in the eastern or southeastern TX Panhandle (cities such as Wheeler, Shamrock, Wellington, Memphis, Childress, Paducah and Quanah) you could see highs around 70 degrees by late day! Winds will be light in the morning blowing from the southwest at 5-15 mph, but will increase to the 15-25 mph average range with some higher gusts to the 35-40 mph possible by the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy on Sunday. MLK Day (Monday) will also feature high temperatures in the 60s to around 70 degrees by late day with a LOT less wind! In fact, light west winds at 5-15 mph in the morning will blow from the southwest at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy throughout the day. If you are lucky enough to have the day off on Monday…get out and enjoy it! As some of us go back to work (or school) on Tuesday, we will see a return to more typical high temperatures dropping back to around 50 degrees by late day. A cold front will move through early Tuesday morning and give us breezy northerly winds at 15-25 mph with some higher gusts possible. Skies will be partly to occasionally mostly cloudy, which will also help keep our temperatures down to near seasonal averages. Okay, let’s get to the “most active” period of this forecast…which is Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will feature an approaching storm system that will cloud up our skies and cause our mostly cloudy morning skies to turn cloudy by the afternoon. A mix of freezing rain, sleet or snow will start falling Wednesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday night. This could cause roads to quickly become hazardous, so be careful and stay tuned to Storm Search 7 as we get more information and “fine tune” this forecast. High temperatures in the 30s to around 40 degrees will occur as northeasterly winds at 5-15 mph prevail. The heaviest snowfall will occur on Thursday and the latest computer model data indicates 1-3” of snow for the TX/OK Panhandles with 3-6” of snow for Eastern New Mexico. The computer models also agree that the heaviest snow could fall west of Tucumcari to around Albuquerque where 6-12” of snow could fall from this storm! Of course, this can all change and simply stay tuned as we “fine tune” this forecast! It will be cloudy and cold otherwise with high temperatures around freezing (32 degrees) and light northwesterly morning winds at 5-15 mph shifting to the west at 5-15 mph by the afternoon hours. Travel could be greatly impacted by the snow…IF we get as much as snow as what is predicted! I’ve attached the European, GFS (American) and Canadian computer model forecasts for the amounts of snow and simply put, they are really “dumping it” on our area and off to the west of us in NM. One thing that has me worried is the “rain/snow” line that the GFS and European have practically right on top of us Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. What if we end up seeing an ice storm instead of all this snow? The computer models don’t seem to think this is a possibility and perhaps, they are simply showing temperatures dropping as the snow falls and no ice….but I’m a little concerned that this might be an ice storm indication. We will wait and see…. NEXT TGI Friday will feature clearing skies by the afternoon hours and some melting of the snow that fell on Thursday. High temperatures will rise into the 30s to around 40 degrees, so definitely not all of Thursday’s snow will melt and I’m sure that much of it will remain. Skies will be cloudy in the morning with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies in the afternoon hours as high pressure moves in from the northwest during the day. Winds will blow from the northwest at 10-20 mph, causing wind chill values in the teens and 20s! So, that’s a look at your “forecast discussion” for this TGI Friday. I hope that you enjoy the warm weather today and through the weekend and stay tuned for more information on next week’s “Winter storm”! I’ll see you back here tomorrow morning!
Posted on: Fri, 16 Jan 2015 12:12:00 +0000