Good Tuesday morning! Here’s what’s heading up your “forecast discussion” this morning… 1) We can expect “near-record” heat today! Amarillo’s official record high of 75 set back in 1970 will be in jeopardy! 2) It will be another unseasonably warm day tomorrow, but not as warm as today as a cold front blows through. 3) The approaching storm system on Friday will start out as rain, but changeover to snow Friday night. 4) The expected snowfall totals are HIGH, but being “conservative”, I’m going with 3-6” of snow over most of the High Plains with just a cold rain and an inch or less of snow in the Eastern Panhandles, off the Caprock (Beaver, Booker, Canadian, Wheeler, Shamrock, Wellington, Childress, Memphis, Paducah and Quanah) I saw a lot of people yesterday afternoon riding around with their windows down, tops on convertibles down and motorcycles were driving everywhere! Well, the same thing will probably occur today with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures getting so warm that they will approach our record high temperature of 75 degrees in Amarillo that was set back in 1970! Winds won’t be too bad either as westerly winds at 10-20 mph blow throughout the day. The snow leftover from the weekend storm system is almost gone and after today…it should be totally gone! A few more high clouds may drift into the area tonight as partly cloudy skies prevail. Overnight low temperatures will still run about 15-20 degrees warmer than average. In fact, lows will drop to as “cold” as 30 degrees in Dalhart to 45 degrees in Childress. Winds will blow from the southwest at 10-20 mph throughout the night. A cold front will push through the area during the afternoon hours on Wednesday and high temperatures won’t be quite as warm as today as a result. In fact, high temperatures will rise to 78 degrees in Childress to the “coolest” high temperature of 60 degrees in Clayton. Winds will blow from the southwest at 10-20 mph ahead of the cold front, then switch around to the north at 10-20 mph after the cold front blows through your hometown. Skies will be partly cloudy with many patches of high clouds drifting by occasionally. Wednesday night and Thursday morning will see a return back to “normal” low temperatures in the 20s and 30s as northerly winds at 10-20 mph prevail. This will create wind chill values in the teens and lower 20s, so bundle back up if you are heading outdoors! Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy as the upper-level storm system over northwestern Mexico gets closer and starts to head this way. Thursday will be a cloudier, colder and more “typical” late January day with high temperatures falling back into the 40s and 50s by late day. Winds will be breezy from the north at 15-25 mph, with some gusts upward of 35-40 mph possible. Of course, this will just make it “feel colder” with wind chill values dropping into the 30s with mostly cloudy skies expected. The extra cloud cover, combined with the wind, will add to the “chilly feel” in the air! TGI Friday is going to be “interesting” as the upper-level storm system that sat over northwestern and northern Mexico this week starts to head our way. It will move over New Mexico on Friday and will bring scattered showers there first thing Friday morning. The Panhandles will have to wait until the afternoon hours for the rain to show up, but it eventually will. Rainfall totals in the .10 to .25” range will be possible by late day. It will be cold and cloudy with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s expected. At least the winds will be light as easterly winds at 5-15 mph in the morning shifts around to the southeast at 5-15 mph in the afternoon hours. Snow will start falling Friday night and continue throughout the day on Saturday. How much can we expect? Take a look at the attached Canadian, GFS (American) and European computer models….wow! Yes, the forecast amounts vary greatly, but the pink and white shaded areas are snow amounts between 9-16 inches! The European and GFS models have the heavier snow across New Mexico (Clovis & Portales…again?!?) while the Canadian computer model has the heaviest snow from Clovis to Amarillo and into western OK. For now, I will be “conservative” and go with an average snowfall total of 3-6” of snow with less snow and more rain off the Caprock in the eastern Panhandles. That means that cities such as Beaver, OK, Booker, Canadian, Miami, Wheeler, Shamrock, Wellington, Childress, Paducah, Memphis and Quanah will see mainly rain and maybe an inch or less of snow. I would simply keep checking back for more updates as we get closer to this time period, but snow is appearing more and more likely and the amounts of snow appear to be going up! High temperatures will be very close to freezing (32 degrees) with southeasterly winds at 5-15 mph expected as well. Needless to say, skies will be cloudy all day long. Ive attached the European, GFS (American) and Canadian computer model forecasts for Saturday morning to around noon. Notice that the GFS and Canadian REALLY drop a lot of snow and rain on us and the GFS is showing 1.4 of moisture (rain and melted down snow!) for us and the Canadian is right at 1 inch of moisture. Ive drawn two different colors of isotherms for you on the European and GFS model data. Why? Well, the dark blue color is where the temperature is 32 degrees. The light blue color is where the temperature is expected to be 35 degrees. If theres one concern that I have with this snow forecast, its that temperatures are expected to be in the 32-35 degree range and we are expecting THAT MUCH SNOW? Hmmmm.... Well, lets wait and see what tomorrows data says, but needless to say that the computer models are trending toward a whiter forecast vs. a wetter one. Super Bowl Sunday will be COLD and cloudy as another surge of Arctic air shows up and keeps our high temperatures in the 20s to around 30 degrees by late day. Some additional, light snow could fall, but little or no accumulations are expected. The snow that fell Friday night through Saturday will not melt and roads could still be slick and hazardous! Stay tuned for more information as we get closer to this time frame. Winds will blow from the north at 15-25 mph and some higher gusts possible in the morning, creating wind chills in the single digits above to single digits below zero in the morning, then decreasing back to the 5-15 mph range in the afternoon. Bundle up, stay warm and if you have to travel on this Super Bowl Sunday to a party, be careful! Monday will be a day to warm up (a little), thaw out (a little) and see the sun re-appear as mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevail. High temperatures will be kept down by the snow on the ground and keep us in the 30s to lower 40s by late day. Winds will blow from the south at 10-20 mph throughout the day, creating wind chill values in the teens and 20s! NEXT Tuesday will feature more cloud cover heading our way with partly cloudy skies and high temperatures staying in the 40s. Winds will blow lightly from the south at 5-15 mph, causing wind chill values to dip into the 20s and 30s. Another upper-level storm system system might head our way from the northwest during the day on Tuesday….causing another chance of rain or snow on Wednesday. You can see the attached European, GFS (American) and Canadian computer model forecasts showing the slight chance of precipitation. We aren’t expecting as much snow or rain with the last few storm systems as this one is moving at us from the northwest vs. the southwest, which is where the other storms came from. Regardless….stay tuned! So, that’s a look at your “forecast discussion” for this Tuesday! Enjoy the spring-like warmth today (and tomorrow) and get ready and stay tuned for a weekend storm system that could put more snow on the ground just in time to watch the Super Bowl! See you back here first thing tomorrow morning!
Posted on: Tue, 27 Jan 2015 11:58:21 +0000
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