Good evening everyone. I want to discuss the tropics in summary starting with the Atlantic basin. Tropical depression Humberto is now a remnant low and the last advisory has been written on this from the national hurricane center. You can see how the strong upper trough and approaching frontal boundary has absorbed into this system and ripped it apart. Anther feature on the tail end of this upper trough axis has a slim chance of tropical cyclone formation near the Bahamas, very slim probabilties. A tropical disturbance over the Bay Of Campeche has a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation, a high chance during the next 24 hours and likewise during the next five day period. The big tropical weather feature on this planet is super typhoon usagi located in the western pacific. Maximum sustained winds near the eye of this storm are near 160 mph with higher gusts. Movement is towards the west northwest at 12 mph. This will bring the eye of super typhoon usagi to a position just to the south of Taiwan within 6 hours. The southern and eastern end of Taiwan could get creamed with tropical storm force winds and hurricane force wind gusts, high seas, and heavy rain during the next day or two. Usagi is forecast to weaken, but remain a strong typhoon as it directly impacts Hong Kong within the next three day or so, possibly as a 105 mph storm at landfall. This system we will watch very closely.
Posted on: Thu, 19 Sep 2013 20:59:38 +0000
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