Good evening everyone. The following I want to discuss in laymens terms the long range weather pattern through thanksgiving, which could result in colder than normal temperatures, the potential for storminess, even a coastal storm setup along the east coast coinciding with thanksgiving. A few items favors this potential setup for thanksgiving. First the North Atlantic Oscillation which is now slightly positive is projected to go to a slightly negative phase by this weekend, go neutral early next week, then go slightly negative by thanksgiving and thanksgiving weekend. This suggest some blocking pattern signature over Hudson Bay and Greenland area and a higher potential for a coastal storm by thanksgiving. At the same time, the east pacific oscillation or EPO by this weekend into early next week is trending negative, which simply means the southern branch of the jet stream will be more active with more abundant moisture. A mild El Niño setup along favors a more active southern branch of the the jet stream This pattern would also favor an upper trough in the east and a potential storm along the east coast. In addition the pacific North American pattern or PNA trends positive during the thanksgiving week period, which means ridging in the western United States, and a dip in the jet stream or a trough in the east. This favors a potential coastal storm and colder than normal temperatures along the east coast, mid Atlantic and northeast around thanksgiving. Many of the long range computer models including the GFS, the CMC or Canadian and the ECMWF or European model in general shows low pressure developing in the southeastern United States and riding up near or along the east coast by November 27th through November 28th, which is thanksgiving day. It is way too early to specify in detail how this storm behaves and develops. But temperatures here in the mid Atlantic will likely be colder than normal starting this weekend with highs only in the upper 30s sunday and monday in Baltimore and just as cold if not colder for the period around thanksgiving. At the same time, we do see potential for onshore flow courtesy of high pressure to our north and low pressure off the carolina/virginia coast and a chance of precipitation, probably more rain along I 95 and possibly more snow in the mountains late next week. While the potential exists for snow accumulation around thanksgiving, especially well northwest of I 95 and over the mountains, its way too early to specify more and its very uncertain the exact details of this system. However we will monitor this scenario very closely because the weather pattern signals we discussed do favor this kind of weather pattern setup. As confidence increases and details become more defined over time, we will update you further. Jim Schuyler
Posted on: Tue, 19 Nov 2013 23:23:10 +0000
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