Good evening folks! We have another weak hurricane season in progress and the reason why is not so much a developing El Nino, but the fact that we have so much sinking dry air at mainly the middle levels of the atmosphere that are also making frequent visits to the surface. Sinking air causes high atmospheric pressure which helps thwart hurricane development. The atmospere needs rising air and lower pressure which acts almost like a huge atmospheric vacuum that sucks up heat and loads of moisture which is converted into wind energy. Right now we have a complex of storms that just rolled off of Senegal, but is headed strait into dry dusty Saharan air. It should putter out tomorrow. Next week might get more exciting. The models show a strong tropical wave moving off of Africa and by that time the dust should be subsiding somewhat. Well have to wait and see. I think well have yet another average season with 3 more hurricanes and 3 more tropical storms. Next year I predict will be a beast of a season. History has show (at least the last 80 years) that a major hurricane has hit the U.S. during the 5th year of every decade since 1935. (Labor day 1935 hurricane, unnamed South Florida hurricane in 1945, Diane 1955, Betsy 1965, Eloise 1975, Elena 1985, Opal 1995, and oh gosh; Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in 2005). I dont know if its coincidence or not, but I have little confidence that 2015 will be any kinder. Its been nearly a decade since the last major hurricane strike afterall, which is unprecedented. Wisdom tells me this record quite spell cant last much longer.
Posted on: Sun, 10 Aug 2014 03:13:43 +0000
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