Good morning Delmarva! Wow so much has changed. Models fell apart over night. Things that were thought to happen are failing! The 50/50 low ( this is the low pressure from the last storm we had the other day ) this has stalled in NE Canada. This low has really weakened which was not suppose to happen according to the models. Thus, this is allowing an eastward trend for the coastal storm. Hence snow totals are lower. Also I am watching where the position of the dry slot of the coastal storm. This is where the storm will wrap dry air into the storm killing any precipitation. Right now we have the ULL passing over us, another bad thing. Timing was way off on this! This is what is providing the rain/snow showers across Delmarva right now. This will continue through out the day as the arctic cold front pushes south. I expect the coastal portion of the storm to start getting its act going this afternoon and really putting the snow down this evening. This will also help to bring down the cold air. Im working on timing for that as well as models continue to try and nail down a track for this storm. Please see the new map for our thoughts right now. BUT DO REALIZE THAT THINGS CAN CHANGE VERY QUICKLY!!!! It wont take much for some heavier snows to come back into our area. 1st picture is our Snow Totals Forecast Map. 2nd picture is of current observations state wide. Blue line is the freeze line at the surface. It will continue to move south across ALL of Delmarva through this afternoon into tonight. 3rd picture is the NAM snowfall model. The NAM has had some problems over the last couple of runs. 4th picture is the GFS snowfall model. This also has had a few problems in the runs, but I believe it has been cleared up. Valid Tuesday night at 7pm. 5th picture is the CMC snowfall model. This is just wrong lol. I dont agree with it at all. Valid Tuesday night at 7pm. Thats what we have in general. So now its just a waiting game. I expect the storm to start forming sometime after lunchtime. It will really be effecting our area tonight after dinner time. Well keep you posted as to any changes that may happen. Another update will happen later this afternoon, unless one is needed earlier which I doubt. Until then enjoy, DW #mdeswx #mdwx #dewx #vaeswx #vawx #mdtraffic #detraffic #vatraffic
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 14:40:17 +0000
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