Good morning. For those who are interested, some articles and thoughts on the present crisis we are facing in the Middle East and North Africa. 1. Yesterday someone launched air strikes in Northern Iraq. Unknown planes bomb ISIS positions in N. Iraq, Pentagon denies it’s US rt/news/168176-iraq-isis-planes-bomb/ Unidentified bombers have reportedly launched an air strike on ISIS positions in the northern Iraqi city of al-Qaim. Iraqi television has claimed they are US planes, but the Pentagon has denied responsibility. US planes were identified by Iraqi television, but the Saudi Al-Arabiya network claims that the raid was carried out by Syria, citing local tribal chiefs. The Turkish Anadolu Agency has claimed that 20 people have died, and 25 more were injured in the raid, which allegedly targeted the local market. 2. About that residual force. Why Iraq’s army crumbled? economist/news/middle-east-and-africa/21604629-politicisation-iraqs-security-forces-undermined-their-fighting-ability-why A number of takeaways from the article: a. The decision not to renew the US-Iraq SOFA prevented the completion of the process to bring the Iraqi army and security forces up to standard. b. The map which accompanies the article shows the daunting task now facing the Iraqi Government. While the area under ISIS et al control in Iraq is not completely accurate (there is no breakout of areas controlled by ISIS and those aligned with ISIS, and reports are for example that fighting continues within the city of Tal Afar itself) it is obvious we are looking at a sustained involvement by the United States over an extended period of time. So much for the Presidents claims that the war in Iraq is over. The Economist report suggests it is unlikely ISIS et al can take Baghdad. That conclusion is a mistake given the state of Iraqs security forces. It is incumbent upon the Government to evacuate all non-essential personnel from the Embassy and to help all American citizens now in Baghdad to leave. Turkey only declared Al Nusrah front a terrorist organization on June 3 and considers the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham an entity. Read: Turkeys New Neighbor longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/06/turkeys_new_neighbor.php Turkey needs to shut down the border, end the jihadist highway, declare ISIS a terrorist organization and sweep up all the ISIS cells now in Turkey. c. Three hundred military trainers and targeted air strikes will not give the Iraqi Government enough leverage to regain the territory in Iraq now controlled by ISIS et al. Planners need to look at Syria and Iraq as one battlefield. ISIS as a self-funded de facto Salafi jihadist terror state, organized in a way to take into account the distinct cultural fabric of the areas it controls. Difficult as it may seem at the moment, success will require our working with the existing Governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran; and that these governments set aside old hatreds and existing ambitions. Given the stated ambitions of ISIS will these governments recognize the common threat, or will existing hatreds and ambitions get in the way? Will the President and his advisers make a complete break from the destabilizing interventionist policies of the Bush administrations Freedom Agenda that morphed into the Obama administrations Democracy Agenda? Doing so will give credibility to our efforts, supported by Russia (and China), to persuade Iran and Saudi Arabia to stop pushing their respective religious theocracies abroad. Both agendas create fertile breeding ground for Sunni and Shia jihadists who are willing to commit the most barbarous acts to achieve their goals, so perpetuating the existing cycle of violence, chaos and destruction in the Middle East, thereby posing threats to the stability of both nations. 3. What about China? China is now the largest importer of crude oil in the world. Iraq is a major source. Projects are underway in southern Iraq to significantly increase the crude oil production. Iraq conflict threatens vital growth of oil sector: analysts news.yahoo/iraq-conflict-threatens-vital-growth-oil-sector-analysts-042142091.html Western majors including BP, ExxonMobil and Shell, along with state-backed Chinese giants CNOOC and CNPC, have ploughed billions of dollars into the countrys oil fields since 2008. According to the report China has a total of 10,000 workers on the ground in Iraq. China has a vested national security interest in ensuring Iraqi stability. Does an increased role for China in helping to maintain security in this part of the world make sense? 4. The Obama Democracy Agenda Sometime in the first year of his Presidency, Obama authorized a pro-active regime change agenda in the MENA, with the United States providing covert support to the Muslim Brotherhood and aligned Islamist insurgent movements to obtain political power. We have discussed this before, but the point requires reiteration. Read: U.S. State Dept. Document Confirms Regime Change Agenda in Middle East mebriefing/?p=789 - and - US State Department Document Reveals Extent of Cooperation Between Washington and the Muslim Brotherhood. Part I: The Libyan Muslim Brotherhood mebriefing/?p=807 - and - The United States and the Muslim Brotherhood Part 2: Egyptian MBs Got Special Status mebriefing/?p=831 As people read through this material, keep in mind that as the State Department was finalizing the implementation memorandum for this strategy in October, 2010 we learned that: Muslim Brotherhood Declares War on America; Will America Notice? gloria-center.org/2010/10/muslim-brotherhood-declares-war-on-america/ In addition, people will find the following two reports of a recent seminar held by Russia of interest: Russians Warn Arab Officials on the New Warfare: Is this the Beginning of a New Bipolar World Order? mebriefing/?p=790 - and - Russia and the Color Revolution. csis.org/files/publication/140529_Russia_Color_Revolution_Summary.pdf A Russian Military View of a World Destabilized by the US and the West (Key Briefs) (h/t Colonel Lang (ret.), whose blog can be found at turcopolier.typepad/sic_semper_tyrannis/. People may not agree with everything he writes, but he is extremely knowledgeable. His strategic and tactical analysis is well founded, precise and to the point.) What has been the result of the Presidents Hope and Change Agenda for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)? Chaos, destruction and death. A few highlights. Salafi Sunni jihad, bringing with it the most barbarous acts of death and destruction has spread throughout MENA. Libya is in chaos and a safe have for these terrorists. After three years of chaos, destruction and death, the Egyptian have opted for the status quo ante, exemplified with the recent election of al-Sisi as President, who has vowed to destroy the Muslim Brotherhood as Egypt battles a Salafi Sunni jihad in the Sinai. Syria is the epicenter of the worst humanitarian and refugee crisis the world has seen since World War II, while spawning a de facto Salafist Sunni terror state that now poses a threat to vital American interests throughout MENA. The President pursued an agenda aimed at helping the Muslim Brotherhood gain political power in MENA, while embracing front organizations for the Muslim Brotherhood in America. The global agenda of the Muslim Brotherhood represents the very antithesis of American ideals. While violating his oath of office, outspoken domestic critics were called conspiracy nuts and labelled islamophobes. The quiet suggestions from domestic and foreign analysts that the Presidents agenda was not the best approach were rejected out of hand. What does it say about our political and media elites that senior Senators on both sides of the aisle went along with all or parts of this grotesque agenda, while much of the American media applauded the President? All that written, although the present situation both at home and abroad is grim, all is not lost. The pony joke as told by the late President Reagan comes to mind: Worried that their son was too optimistic, the parents of a little boy took him to a psychiatrist. Trying to dampen the boy’s spirits, the psychiatrist showed him into a room piled high with nothing but horse manure. Yet instead of displaying distaste, the little boy clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to all fours, and began digging. What do you think you’re doing? the psychiatrist asked. With all this manure, the little boy replied, beaming, there must be a pony in here somewhere. Yes it is important to remain optimistic as we focus on the present. However, to properly confront ISIS, the President needs to have the confidence of the American people. At present he does not. It is not enough for his spin masters to simply dismiss the Presidents critics, while calling for people to focus on the threat posed by ISIS. Until the President acknowledges his past mistakes, and those who advised him to proceed with a policy that has had disastrous results are held to account, while America may be hobbled in her ability to properly respond, he is not deserving of the publics confidence. Trusting these thoughts are of some value. Okay, that is it for now. May the rest of your morning be blessed.
Posted on: Wed, 25 Jun 2014 06:26:53 +0000