Good news and bad news for those traveling over the next week. The good news...its less stormy, less rainy, much less snowy and much warmer the 21st-22nd than last year. The bad news is we still have a warm wet mess with computer models in chaos mode on where the storms will end up so just be prepared for primarily mild and wet conditions East that will create travel delays and mild/some snow in the Great Lakes. MAP 1: 22 December Monday Travel Weather: Shows the model confusion with a storm developing over the Upper Midwest Monday with light accumulating snow in Upper Midwest and a developing storm in the Southeast. The Southeast is certainly wet and much of the country will be pretty windy along with almost the entire U.S. having well above average temperatures. Last year was the 2nd wettest in 25+ years on this date and mild, this year is the warmest in 11 years for 22 December. MAP 2: 23 December Tuesday Travel Weather: An Upper Midwest storm with heavy snow limited to Northern Minnesota, Northern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan. Secondary weaker low off the East Coast but again this is a warm/wet storm with any snow limited to high elevation of Adirondacks in New York. Overall rainfall totals for the day are near average and less than last year’s wettest conditions in 6 years. Temperatures are again the warmest in 8 years and way above average but it will also be very windy around these two storms adding to delays. Chart 3: National snowfall for the 22-23 December 1992-2014 busiest travel days shows the least national snowfall in 9 years and trending a whopping 90% below last year and 84% below average. THIS IS BIG PLUS for just delays vs cancellations. So, at least there wont be widespread snow delays to worry about for most of us. Map 4: Snowfall forecast by day for 20 Dec Saturday - 23 Dec Tuesday. Only snow delays likely in the Upper Midwest but well north of Chicago and Minneapolis hubs where not much snow is expected. Map 5: Snowfall outlook 24-27 Dec very much subject to change but for now it appears the main low pressure is the Great Lakes system with heavier snow pushing into Canada Christmas Eve to Christmas Day. The next maybe system is the 26th-27th that could track along the Central U.S. into the Northeast but again very uncertain on that one this far out. BOTTOM LINE...if youre leaving over the weekend...A OK! Leaving Monday youre OK but some delays for Chicago and Atlanta airports due to rain. Leaving Tuesday probably a lot longer delays but since this is mainly rain for most of the East hopefully no cancellations. Getting into the Midwest Wednesday is much better but still rainy in the East with delays and any snow limited to very high elevations above 2,000 feet from WV to New England. Leaving Christmas Day windy and dry for most of the country other than New England with lingering rain/snow showers and snow in Colorado Rockies. Sorry for the novel but obviously its impossible to give everyone exactly what headaches theyll have but we tried. :) We will have regular updates as things develop. - Capt Kirk out.
Posted on: Thu, 18 Dec 2014 19:48:34 +0000
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