Grain futures catching their collective breath this morning after a hard day’s night on Monday. Nearby corn down ¾ @ 515, DEC down 1 ½ @ 499. NOV beans down 2 ½ @ 1387, JAN down 2 ¼ @ 1384.75. Old wheat up ¼ @ 655 and JUL ’14 down ½ @ 680. Gold is strong on the morning, up 27, the dollar is slightly weaker and crude is up over 2 bucks. Of course the news feeding the bull market is weather. High temps in the midwest are taking their toll (at least psychologically) on the crop. The western corn belt and specifically IA have experienced a dry JUL/AUG after a wet spring. IA is said to be experiencing one of the driest late summer periods in recent history. Luckily for the crop and end users, July was much cooler than normal across the belt, softening the blow. Corn The golden grain seems to be hitching a ride the runaway bean train. Even with bullish Pro-Farmer style S/D estimates we still expect to see ‘13/’14 ending stox double that of current levels. Harvest is slowly…slowly expanding northward into the lower Ohio River valley and early yield reports are robust. Most of this action seems to be to capture the huge inverse created by the processor in the cash market, fill early commitments and avoid the painful discount of late delivery. The charts have turned upward in momentum in the past few days with the market above the 9 & 18 day MA’s. Spreads have firmed over the past few days, indicative of a bull market (that is if you don’t count the beating administered on the u-z in yesterday’s trade. Keep in mind also that the spec short is much smaller today than in days past which could slow short covering and further rally attempts. Beans What can I say? Beans are pulling all other markets higher on worries of lack of moisture during critical pod-filling stages in a year where the S/D table really cannot afford a major hiccup. Beans are up more than $2.25 over the past twenty days, thanks in large part to a 61.5c move yesterday after a long, hot, dry weekend coupled with a bullish Pro-Farmer Tour that estimated a smaller yield than the guv and fewer acres as well. Over the past three weeks futures have breezed right past any semblances of resistance but it is worthy to note that we did have some difficulty approaching the psychological $14 mark yesterday. Wheat Not much to talk about on wheat as it seems to be following corn action which is lagging bean movement. Wheat charts have been pretty much flat over the past couple months but have shown some sign of life with us now looking at harvest in the rear view. Charts are giving a thought to turning north. However, at this point any movement is mere noise. Make it a good day. Andrew Jackson | Facility Manager CGB - Uniontown, KY | (270) 577-4786 Andrew.jackson@cgb
Posted on: Tue, 27 Aug 2013 13:53:52 +0000
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