Great Lakes levels are up across the board in the latest U.S. Army Corps of Engineers weekly report while corn planting, as outlined by the USDAs early week report lag a year ago slightly. My friend John Hazzard, who farms south of Chicago in the Wilmington area reports 5 to 10% of the corns been planted in his area compared to 15% a year ago. All of us are monitoring forecasts on the latest spring storm predicted to begin impacting the area with gusty east winds and spotty light showers Sunday which build to more substantial spells of rainfall in the Monday-Wed time frame. Overnight model 7-day rainfall estimates, which include the spotty rains which occurred during the night place total rainfall through the waves of rainfall--some of it possibly thundery--expected between now and the end of next week in the 1.03 to 4.90 inch range--but suggest most totals are likely to fall somewhere in the 2-3 range over that period--more than 3 times normal if the forecast verifies. Check out several severe weather panels out of the Storm Prediction Center starting with the Day #3 (Sun/Sun night) time frame), including some raw SREF model severe forecasts, including a composite 24 hour severe weather probability graphic for the Sunday/Sunday night time frame, the SREF model tornado ingredients forecast which looks at vertical shear and CAPEs (which reflective atmospheric energy and buoyancy--key factors in producing rotating supercell t-storms and tornadoes). SPC and model guidance is laying out the very real potential for multiple severe weather episodes over a series of days as this latest spring storm crawls across the nation later this weekend and into next week.
Posted on: Fri, 25 Apr 2014 15:40:07 +0000
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