HAIYAN (YOLANDA) remains an Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon and is considered as the Strongest Tropical Cyclone in the World this year...continues to endanger Leyte and Samar Provinces..as well as the whole of Central and Northwestern Visayas. The potential landfall area of this super typhoon is likely along the eastern coast of Northern Leyte on or before noontime Friday, November 08. Important Note: This typhoon is similar in track but more powerful in strength of Super Typhoon MIKE (RUPING) which passed across the Visayas on November 12, 1990 which devastated much of Central Visayas paricularly Cebu. Residents living along the eastern seaboards of the Philippines from Northern Quezon...Bicol Region...down to Northeastern Mindanao should continue monitoring the approach of this destructive typhoon for possible unprecendented track changes. Plans for emergency situations and/or disaster management planning must be completed as soon as possible as the dangerous cyclone is only 1 day away from hitting land. Residents and visitors along Northeastern Mindanao, Visayas, and Bicol Region should closely monitor the development of Haiyan. Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins. CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS As of 11:00 am today, the eye of STY Haiyan was located over the South Philippine Sea...about 785 km southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte or 880 km east-southeast of Metro Cebu...currently moving very quickly west-northwest with a forward speed of 37 km/hr towards Leyte and Southern Samar Area. Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are at 280 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 230 kilometers from the center. STY Haiyan remains a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK* STY Haiyan is expected to move fast in a generally straight, west-northwest track throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will make landfall over the northeastern shores of Leyte, about 20 km south of Tacloban City between 10AM-12NN Friday and cross Northern Leyte passing over or very close to Ormoc City just past noontime Friday. This Super Typhoon will start traversing the North Central part of the Visayas Friday afternoon, passing over the northern tip of Cebu, very close to Bogo City around 2 PM...across the northern tip of Panay (along Roxas City and Boracay) Friday evening between 7 PM to 9 PM...and will be over Coron, Palawan by early Saturday Morning (approx. 2 AM). By Saturday morning, Haiyan (Yolanda) will be over the West Philippine Sea moving away from the Philippines. STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will start to slightly weaken within the next 24 hours as the system makes landfall over North Central Visayas...and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 230 km/hr by Saturday morning. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system: FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon...approaching the eastern coast of Leyte...about 140 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte [8AM NOV 08: 10.8N 126.2E @ 250kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea...weakens to a Category 4 Typhoon after traversing Northern Visayas and the Calamian Group of Islands...about 265 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [8AM NOV 09: 12.5N 117.8E @ 220kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Over the western part of the South China Sea...approaching the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 3...about 275 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [8AM NOV 10: 15.2N 110.6E @ 195kph]. *Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Below is the summary of the storms parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts. 30-KM ROUND EYE - over water. Possible calm and lull conditions (with 118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None. OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Visayas, Mindanao and Republic of Palau (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Haiyan. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas beginning tonight through Friday morning. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon, Eastern and Northern Mindanao and the rest of Visayas incl. Palawan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).--> Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs! — with Kayang Paurom Bumatay and 5 others. The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system: FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon...approaching the eastern coast of Leyte...about 140 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte [8AM NOV 08: 10.8N 126.2E @ 250kph]. SATURDAY MORNING: Over the West Philippine Sea...weakens to a Category 4 Typhoon after traversing Northern Visayas and the Calamian Group of Islands...about 265 km west-northwest of Coron, Palawan [8AM NOV 09: 12.5N 117.8E @ 220kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Over the western part of the South China Sea...approaching the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 3...about 275 km east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam [8AM NOV 10: 15.2N 110.6E @ 195kph].
Posted on: Thu, 07 Nov 2013 16:51:50 +0000
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