HAPPY SUNDAY READING Nigerias Unsustainable Peace Deal with Boko Haram Analysis Past cease-fire claims have emerged from both the government and from negotiators claiming to represent Boko Haram. None of these agreements actually materialized and Boko Haram attacks continued unabated. The Nigerian government has had a particularly difficult time identifying a Boko Haram representative who could make compromises and guarantee the entire group will observe them. It is quite possible that Abuja has reached an agreement with a legitimate representative of a specific cell or faction within Boko Haram that holds the kidnapped schoolgirls captive. It is much less likely, however, that this willingness to make a deal extends to all elements of Boko Haram. Boko Haram is a decentralized movement that operates in Nigerias poor northern region, an area that will continue to be a hotbed of discontent as long as it does not benefit from Nigerias resource wealth. The release of the captured students will be a political win for Jonathan, who has been pressured by critics at home and abroad to secure the schoolgirls release. If he has been able to strike a deal with Boko Haram, he will be in a better position to compete against opposition members, such as former military leader Muhammadu Buhari, who have criticized Jonathan for his handling of the situation. If they have secured the release of the students, government negotiators will likely have given into Boko Harams longstanding demands for the release of captured militants or the payment of ransoms, both of which would bolster the Islamist group. The opposition will use any compromise to accuse the government of taking a soft stance and negotiating with the enemy. Nigerias Chief of Defense Staff, Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh, has already issued orders to Nigerian military leaders to ensure immediate compliance in the field with a cease-fire agreement. Although details are limited, such a cease-fire could be temporary, only allowing for the hostage release and potential prisoner swaps to occur. Even if temporary, a truce would benefit both sides. Nigerias military has faced significant challenges in fighting Boko Haram recently because the militants have managed to take control of villages across a relatively large swath of northeastern Nigeria. A reprieve would allow Abujas military officials to restore morale among its soldiers, shift resources and deliver much-needed supplies. Boko Haram could also use the time to recover after continued clashes with the military as Abuja tries to retake the northeast, though its existence is unsustainable unless it is actively battling with government forces and local Christians. In the end, a sustainable peace agreement between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram is unrealistic. Boko Haram would not have negotiated the reported truce from a position of weakness. Despite recent limited government gains, Abuja has been unable to turn the conflict completely against Boko Haram and the militant group retains control of a number of northeastern towns. The structural inequalities with the south that facilitate Boko Harams northeastern insurgency remain in place. Jonathans need to show himself as a strong and pragmatic leader ahead of elections, however, means that Abuja is willing to compromise for a political win. Continued attacks by Boko Haram and the difficulties they pose to security forces combatting them will be pushed to the background, at least for a while. Moreover, a release of hostages would put a positive twist on the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram will, however, continue to be a problem, and whoever wins the presidency in February will face severe challenges in containing or combating the Islamist group.
Posted on: Sun, 19 Oct 2014 16:04:29 +0000
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