HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1211 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091200- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE- ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM- WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN- COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON- CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER- WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- 1211 PM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LOCATION... THE SLIGHT RISK IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY...TO HINTON AND FREDERICK IN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTWARD TO VERNON AND BENJAMIN IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TIMING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 6 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IMPACTS... THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS... STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DISCUSSION... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE REGION LAST NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A STOUT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE... THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLES. WITH MERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE INITIAL STORMS...ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. WITH WIDE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS AND HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS STORMS MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A HAIL THREAT EXISTS...AS MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST... FAVORING SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OF GREATER CONCERN BESIDES WIND...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE WELL SATURATED. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 9. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK...THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE SATURATED. HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY IN CASE FLOODING DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA...AND REMEMBER...BE SMART...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER... WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN NON SEVERE. THOUGH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TOMORROW IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TAKE CARE OF ANY OUTDOOR WORK NOW WHILE THE WEATHER IS RELATIVELY MILD. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM SUNDAY. $$
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 17:35:42 +0000
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