HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 455 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013 OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081900- HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE- ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM- WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND- POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN- COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON- CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER- WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY- 455 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN... CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. LOCATION... THE SLIGHT RISK IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PONCA CITY...TO HINTON AND FREDERICK IN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWESTWARD TO VERNON AND BENJAMIN IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TIMING... THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 6 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT. IMPACTS... THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS... STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. DISCUSSION... THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY...PREVENTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND ALLOWING FOR AMPLE SURFACE HEATING. AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL HAPPEN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS EVENTUALLY MERGE...ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. WITH RELATIVELY HOT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES SURGE SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALSO FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITHIN STRONGER STORM CORES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO A VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT IN AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PROBABILITY TABLE... VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY JUN 9. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT. PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK...THE GROUND IN MANY AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE SATURATED. HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY IN CASE FLOODING DEVELOPS IN YOUR AREA...AND REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO FLOOD WATERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE INSTABILIY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN NON SEVERE. THOUGH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TOMORROW IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW. OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER... AS MID LEVEL RIDING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY FROM MID WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TAKE CARE OF ANY OUTDOOR WORK NOW WHILE THE WEATHER IS RELATIVELY MILD. THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON TODAY. $$
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 10:29:52 +0000
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