HDFF: Bi-Weekly Thailand Review 1 – 14 November - MUST READ up-date on Thai politics, economy and security issues Summary In politics, anti-amnesty bill protests have kept tension up in the capital over the past week with assemblies around Asoke station, Rajdamnoen road and Silom counting thousands of participants from varying sectors. Following the rejection of the bill by the Senate, several leaders of protesters stated that they would continue to urge people to come to rallies but this time to push for a change of government. In economy, the International Monetary Fund warned Thailand that a continuation of populist policies could seriously hurt growth as neither exports nor domestic consumption have picked up at the pace expected by the government. The tourism sector is according to the September report the only sector that expands on a year-on-year basis, happy news as the high season is approaching fast. In security, the conflict over the Preah Vihear temple area has been settled by the International Court of Justice in favour of Cambodia. Both governments have pledged to follow the ruling but Thai military personnel are still largely in place. In the Southern conflict, the anniversary of the Tak Bai incident was unexpectedly calm while founding anniversaries of two militant groups led to bombings and casualties throughout the three southern border provinces. Politics “The government’s latest attempt to get Thaksin Shinawatra back has united almost everyone against it”, The Economist titled its most recent report from Thailand, covering the amnesty bill protests. After the bill successfully passed the 2nd and 3rd reading with votes from the Pheu Thai Party, street protests gradually increased all over the country with a multitude of different sectors joining the demonstrations. The anti-corruption commission stated that the bill would kill over 25,000 graft cases, about 400 of these involving senior politicians. Even red-shirt leaders spoke out against the bill, the leader of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, Thida Thawornseth summed up the split among red-shirts by saying, “There are red shirts who would rather see those responsible for violence in 2010 go to jail than to bring Thaksin home.” Despite Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s adamant announcements that the amnesty bill was designed to reconcile differences within the Thai society, large parts of the public still consider her statements as dishonest, hiding a simple intention to bring her brother back home a free man. The opposition Democrat Party, whose leaders Abhisit Vejjajiva and Suthep Thaugsuban would also have been acquitted of their murder charges related to the 2010 red shirt crackdown, sensed the potential to gain support and mobilized their base against the amnesty bill, joining protesters from the prestigious Chulalongkorn and Thammasat University, the private sector, and other opposition groups. According to police reports up to 50,000 people in Bangkok joined the demonstrations at their peak period leaving Pheu Thai with no other option than to retreat to de-escalate the situation. PM Yingluck met with red-shirt leaders to reconcile with their base supporters from the northeast before making the announcement that the government will respect the decision made by the Senate and not revive the bill if it is voted down by the senators. Under pressure from the public, the Senate unanimously rejected the amnesty bill. The Democrat Party, encouraged by the recent support, announced to continue its street protests and urged people to strike and take time off work to join them. Nevertheless, the party finds itself in a tricky balancing act where analysts see an opportunity of great public support that could be used to push government to call a snap election by dissolving the House although on the other hand they still need to take care not to overplay their cards. For example, the appeal to strike and take time off work has already been condemned by private sector groups that previously supported the demonstrations. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, argues that the anti-government groups will try to hold their ground until early December in an attempt to “provoke Yingluck’s government into an overreaction”. Time will tell if Bangkok-based security and risk consultancy PSA Asia’s prediction will hold true. In their report to clients they stated that, “Should amnesty falter and Mr. Thaksin fail, it could mark the beginning of the end of the Thaksin era in Thai politics.” (Bangkok Post, Bloomberg, France24, Reuters, The Economist, The Nation, The Wall Street Journal) Economy The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has joined the crowd of analysts and experts warning the Thai government about the hazards of populist policies. Government policies such as the first car-buyer scheme, crop pledging and tablet computers for school children have been based on the expectation of export and domestic consumption growth. However, in a year-on-year comparison, exports have fallen 6.3 % in September 2013 compared to the previous year. The households’ consumption has also decreased by about 1.3 %. The rice-pledging scheme has thus far received the most negative attention as the uncompetitive price of Thai rice has led Thailand to lose its place as the leading rice exporter while leaving up to 17 million tonnes of rice in stockpiles. The government no longer reports the losses of the policy (2011-2012 crop year showed losses of 136 billion baht) but it has been estimated to exceed 400 billion baht for the totality of the programme. (Reuters, Financial Times, Bangkok Post) Besides overall sluggishness in the Thai market and growth, political conflict has boiled in the capital over the past two weeks. The Federation of Thai Industries has warned that Small and Medium Enterprises are likely to suffer if the demonstrations are prolonged further due to their small margins and limited access to cash. Voices have also been raised warning that foreign investor confidence could weaken as street protests and disruptions continue, something that is shaken off as exaggerated by Khun Udom Wongviwatchai, Secretary-General of the Board of Investment (BOI), since he says that political problems have been occurring regularly in Thailand over a number of years and investors will simply wait for the problems to resolve themselves. Nevertheless, effects have already been seen on the Thai economy as the SET Index has fallen together with the baht. (The Nation, The Wall Street Journal, Bangkok Post) Tourism however remains the stable pillar of the Thai economy as many service providers prepare for the oncoming high season. The tourism sector was the only that showed expansion in the year-on-year comparison for September that was recently released. Perhaps surprisingly in this context, a survey carried out by EF Education First of 60 countries where English is not the main mother tongue shows that Thailand ranks 6th from the bottom as regards English proficiency. In Asia, Thailand only scores better than Kazakhstan and is left far behind Malaysia and Singapore at the top of the list. (Reuters, Pattaya Mail, The Nation) Security The long-held dispute surround the Preah Vihear temple has reached a judgement in the International Court of Justice (ICJ). On November 11, the entire territory of the promontory of the disputed Preah Vihear temple was awarded to Cambodia by the court, with the exception of the Pheu Makhua hill. Pheu Makhua is within the disputed 4.6 square kilometers which the ICJ was asked to rule on. Additionally, the ruling ordered Thai police and military troops to leave the area, potentially inflaming tensions between the two neighbours. At least 28 people have been killed in violent disputes since 2011 over the territory near the 900 year old Hindu temple. Although the ICJ already once ruled that the temple itself would belong to Cambodia, clarifications were requested after thousands of people were displaced since the territory around the temple still remained of unclear ownership. The mood has been tense on both sides of the temple. Both countries have promise to abide with the ICJ ruling but Thai troops have nevertheless been ordered by government officials to remain in the area until the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have clarified the outcome of the ruling and the necessary processes. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has called for restraint in order to avoid any further violence, a statement echoed by the Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra who intends to use bilateral relations with the neighbour to avoid any conflict assuring that “Thailand will enter negotiations with Cambodia to put an end to the issue”. In a televised conference, she said, “I would like all Thais to be confident that the government will be at its best in protecting national interests.” Foreign Ministers from both countries, Khun Surapong Tovichakchaikul from Thailand and his Cambodian counterpart Mr. Hor Namhong, intend to set up a Thai-Cambodian Joint Commission to provide a forum for the two countries to settle the issue. (Bangkok Post, Aljazeera) In southern Thailand, the anniversaries of the infamous Tak Bai incident as well as of the founding of South independency groups Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and Pattani United Liberation Organisation (PULO) have marked security news from Southern Thailand. For more information about the Southern Security situation, please see HDFF’s monthly Security Report. hdff.org/2013/11/14/hdff-bi-weekly-thailand-review-1-14-november/
Posted on: Thu, 14 Nov 2013 14:53:57 +0000
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