HEAVEN WILL NOT FALL Can heaven fall? My best guess is that you know the answer to this question. I attended the 2014 edition of the Nigeria Maritime Development Conference(NIMADEC 2014) held at the Classic, Rockview Hotel, Apapa, Lagos on Tuesday last week. Over a launch at the recess, I met a man, about 50 or so, who told me he is a member of the transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria(TAN), one of the groups supporting President Jonathan’s re-election. He probably knows my views on President Jonathan either through my discussion earlier with the Chairman on the Conference or through any other means I cannot immediately explain. So he put forward the usual pro-Jonathan arguments in his bid to persuade me. This man is always surprised to know that for every one argument he put forward in favour of Jonathan, I found not less than four to counter. In the end this man agreed, albeit temporarily, with me that if Jonathan loses next year heaven will not fall. It was from this man that I got a piece of information that still scares me about arms shipment into the country for the election. He used this to strengthen his argument that in Africa incumbents don’t lose elections. I later came to know that this man works with the Nigerian Shippers’ Council at Apapa after he gave me his complementary card. Well, like this my man, many if not most, of President Jonathan’s supporters hold this view. In fact this is their only card left to play. It is their only life line. In my opinion, this people need to take a course in history that heaven has not fallen and it will not fall! For those who know, or bother to know, incumbents have lost and still losing in Africa. But for those who are yet to know I will cite four instances befare I come back home. In Ivory Coast, Alassane Quattara defeated President Laurent Gbagbo(who assumed office in 2000) in 2011. Gbagbo unaware that the game is up, deployed state institutions all to avert the inevitable, but before he knew what was happened it was all over. Quattara was sworn-in in 2012 and heaven did not fall! President Abdolaye Wade of Senegal was another man who did his best to avoid the inevitable. Having been in power for about twelve years, himself defeating Abou Diof(who assumed power in 1981) he lost to his arch rival, Machy Sall. Notice that Mr Sall has been Wade’s opponent since 2000. Sall won and guess what, heaven did not fall! Notice these are our West African neighbours. Let us cite two more significant instances and we come back home. Bwezani Banda of Zambia infact has a lot in common with President Jonathan. He was the unusual choice of late President Levy Manawasa for Vice President. When his boss died of stroke in 2009 he immediately assumed office as President. In 2011, the inevitable happened when faced with Michael Sata in the Presidential election. Mr. Sata won, and again, heaven did not fall! Mrs Joyce Banda is a gender activist in Malawi. In the teeth of opposition from masculine chauvinists, President Bingn wa Mutharika appointed her Vice president in 2009. Following the death of her boss, she assumed office as President in 2012. She is the first ever female Vice President and President in a male-dominated Malawi. She was defeated by Arthur Mutharika, the brother of late President early this year. Again heaven did not fall! Back in Nigeria, there was a time when it was almost impossible for incumbents to lose. The case of the Western region election(1965) comes to mind. In the second republic, you are almost an endangered species if you belonged to any party apart from the NPN. In the fourth republic, you are almost home and dry if you belong to the PDP. Recently PDP governors have been losing elections as incumbents and heaven has not fallen and will not fall! For my TAN man, I told him that against all doom say predictions, the APC have shown the world its superior organisation and planning ability with the recent conduct of its Convention. The party’s tactics and strategies in my view appear superior to the PDP’s at least from what I have seen so far. I am also of the view that if APC will win one election or have a chance to produce the President then it will be the next year’s election. Though many PDP supporters may see it otherwise, but this is just my own view. I concluded the party have the means, men and materials, to go all the way come 2015 and after that HEAVEN WILL NOT FALL! He agreed this time. OLALEKAN ADIGUN adgorwell@gmail
Posted on: Sun, 21 Dec 2014 10:12:44 +0000
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