HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY JUNE 27TH 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A showery depression will drift slowly East across Southern England over the next 24 hours or so. GFS The GFS operational today shows a ridge of High pressure from the Azores High stretching across the UK early next week ahead of Low pressure migrating down from the NW later with outbreaks of rain on fresh Westerly breezes later. The Ensembles to support that general theme with a North/South split propably developing with time with the North likely to see further rain at times from atlantic troughs while the South benefits from higher pressure with little rain and some long dry and bright spells. UKMO UKMO today ends its run for next Thursday showing a classic setup of an Icelandic Low pressure and an Azores High with a fresh Westerly flow developing over the UK. Troughs in the flow would bring rain and drizzle to the North and West while the South continues the drier theme from earlier in the week with rather more cloud with time. GEM The GEM operational today shows the Low much further South towards Scotland later next week and then on out into the North Sea. As a result the attendant rain, cool winds and showers would be much more widespread over the UK with rather cool conditions for many only easing slowly from the west by Day 10. NAVGEM NAVGEM brings the Low further South too ending its run next Saturday with the Low over SW England having migrated down from the North in the days before. This would mean plenty of rain for all, heavy at times and temperatures disappointing for early July. ECM The ECM operational today shows agreement on Low pressure drifting slowly SE from Iceland to Scotland late next week where it becomes slow moving with blustery winds and showers or rain at times for most in the final days of next week and the weekend especially but not exclusively in the North. MY THOUGHTS There is generally good agreement on the trend of events over the output range this morning though subtle differences in the positioning of next weeks Low pressure sinking SE from Iceland will have strong effects on the weather obtained in any one place as a result. The first few days of next week should be relatively set fair everywhere as a ridge of High pressure slips SE over the UK. Its later in the week when differences develop with some output holding Low pressure far enough North to keep the worst of the wind and rain to the North while other output bring it wholeheartedly down across the UK with widespread rain and showers as a result in cool air. The one constant today is that no heatwave looks likely over the next two weeks though I dont feel that too much pessimism should be applied either as I feel that the Azores High could ridge up towards at least Southern Britain at times offering some reasonable weather at least on occasion. Source and credit .................. norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.htm
Posted on: Fri, 27 Jun 2014 08:21:09 +0000