HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY DECEMBER 2ND 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION . A cold front moves SE slowly across Northern and Western Britain with a ridge ahead and behind the trough affecting Central areas later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Alot of dry weather especially at first before it slowly becomes more unsettled from the North later. Average temperatures with some frost and fog patches night and morning. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a brief dip South in the flow across NW Europe before returning North quite quickly and settling in a generally West to East flow across Central Britain from next weekend onward. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows High pressure to the South of the UK in complete control of keeping wintry weather away from most of the UK over the next few weeks. Apart from a brief dip into a brief colder Northerly incursion at the end of the week the winds quickly back towards a milder Westerly quadrant and even SW later keeping things generally mild with some rain at times chiefly in the North and West THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar with only the addition of another brief chillier period under Northerly winds in Week 2 before it too shows even milder weather under a South or SSSW flow late in the run under High pressure to the SE. THE GFS CONTROL. The GFS control run also offers little change from the High pressure based pattern with the centre alternating from a point to the SW of the UK or over France and Low pressure continuing to be steered East to the North of the UK with rain at times largely restricted to the North and West with a lot of dry weather elsewhere. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES. The GEFS Ensembles also show a fairly flat pattern with persistent High pressure to the South minataining generally benign Westerly winds across the UK with just the briefest intervention of colder conditions from the North later this week before a pattern reset takes place next week with more unsettled conditions perhaps edging further South down across the UK later in the period. UKMO UKMO today shows a cold Northerly flow across the UK ahead of a toppling ridge SE through the weekend with milder Westerly winds reaching the NW and extending slowly SE to other areas late in the weekend. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure across the UK for the period with a NE flow over the South and a SW flow to the NW with dry and fine weather for many with areas of fog and frost in places. Later a cold front is shown to cross SE across the UK introducing a brief and chilly Northerly flow at the weekend GEM GEM shows a pattern which deteriorates conditions across the UK from the North later next weekend and the start of next week. In the interim period dry and benign conditions ahead of a cold front introduces a brief but chilly Northerly at the weekend before milder Westerly winds by this time next week bring falling pressure and spells of rain followed by winry showers down across the UK next week in rather cold conditions in strong and blustery WNW winds. NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows the brief Northerly at the end of the week with frost and fog patches night and morning. It later shows winds backing Westerly and becoming milder again with some rain at times then towards the North and NW. ECM ECM this morning shows a pattern more alike to GEM as the brief Northerly at the coming weekend backs off towards the West with falling pressure next week and deep Low pressure sliding ESE across the Northern North sea sending cold fronts SE across the UK with rain and strong winds followed by colder showery conditions likely although from the 10 day chart it looks like milder weather behind a band of rain is knocking on the door of West and SW Britain again. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles show Low pressure close to the coast of Western Norway and High pressure near the Azores the most likely pattern we arrive at by Day 10 with a broad Westerly pattern across the UK delivering more unsettled weather than currently with rain at times and incursions of cooler and more showery weather in between with snow possible on Northern hills. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the South of the UK over the period with a variety of long term solutions shown none of which point to sustained and notable cold weather. MY THOUGHTS There still appears to be little evidence of any true Wintry weather for anywhere other than the highest peaks of mountains of Scotland and the North with High pressure as stubborn and persistent as ever across France and the areas towards the Azores throughout. While this stays here our only chance of true cold is from brief incursions of cold Northerly winds behind cold fronts of exiting depressions away from Northern Scotland before toppling ridges of High pressure bring back milder maritime air across the UK from the West. Nevertheless, this week will feel far from mild for many as the risk of frost and fog as the week to come is High under a ridge from the SW later. With time there is a slow trend towards the High slipping rather further South than currently allowing more depth to unsettled conditions feeding down from the North and perhaps allowing more enhanced incursions of colder air at times. Our problem lies with strong Jet flow aligned to the North of the UK rounding a large somtimes displaced Azores high and as I indicated in my reports late last week once this pattern forms it can become devastating for those looking for true Winter long lasting cold. There are normally two routes out of this pattern and that is a ridging of the High North through the Atlantic to greenland disrupting the Jet flow and allowing cold North winds to flood down over NW Europe and while this has been hinted at recently there seems little cross model support for this to happen anytime soon with pressure remaining stubbornly low near Greenland. Secondly we could do with High pressure to migrate from the South or SW across the UK to Scandinavia to once more disrupt the Jet South dragging depressions on much more Southerly latitudes as they approach the UK but that seems unlikely currently. Instead we have to look towards somewhat more unsettled conditions feeding down from the North as the High to the South or SW relaxes somewhat next week but rain and wind are then more likely than cold and snow though with colder air to the North it wouldnt take much to bring that South into the UK at times. In my opinion as of previous days I think the North is the direction to look for any cold over the coming weeks rather than anywhere else as an eventual ridging of High pressure North through the Atlantic will give us our best shot of any real wintry cold and some of the white stuff. Source and credit .................... norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.htm
Posted on: Mon, 01 Dec 2014 09:44:45 +0000
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