HRRR IS GETTING A BIT SCARY! This is either going to be a big hero or a big bust for the coast. 4Z HRRR model maps. The first is total snowfall for 14 hrs ending at 1pm followed by the 1 hour snowfall between noon and 1pm. Notice that it has almost all of the coast getting between 1/2 and 1 of snow during that hour with heavy 1 to 2 inch an hour rates or higher just inland. Considering that as I type this it is 47 degrees at Islip, it is pretty hard to imagine how this could even be close to being correct. The 850 is certainly cold enough with the zero far to the south and offshore. I am extremely hesitant to accept this as far as a practical forecast is concerned but it continues to bear watching. It does show surface temps in the 30s everywhere. Just inland where snow falls and falls hard there is already 6 inches plus of accumuation in Northern NJ and in Eastern Pennsylvania. It least for those locations, raising amounts may not be a difficult decision. Im not going to make any changes in the forecast right now but IF this model trend is real and it continues, then what happens after 5pm when the cold air begins to really get involved in all of this??? It is going to make for a very interesting day Wednesday.
Posted on: Wed, 26 Nov 2014 07:00:01 +0000
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