Has the ANC finally met its match? Max du Preez Numsa’s expulsion from Cosatu could well prove to have more of an impact on South Africa’s politics and economy than the formation of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) last year. The political power game between Numsa and Cosatu is far from over, but there is no doubt that we are witnessing the birth of a new political movement that could eventually seriously undermine the ANC’s dominance at the polling booth. It could signal the actual beginning of a substantial rearrangement of South Africa’s political forces that could lead to a very different political landscape in five years – possibly even a coalition government after 2019. One question is yet to be answered: will Zwelinzima Vavi play a leading role in this new political formation? He is officially still the secretary general of Cosatu, but did not attend Tuesday’s important Cosatu briefing, instead sending a letter opposing the expulsion. Few people in the know would put bets on him staying in Cosatu if Numsa remains expelled. Vavi is an experienced and wily politician with abundant charisma. Numsa Secretary General Irvin Jim is not less talented and the two could become a powerful team, complemented by the considerable organisational acumen of Karl Cloete, Jim’s deputy. These men are heavyweights, not populist exhibitionists like the EFF. The events of the last few days put the governing ANC under a lot of strain. The SACP, meant to be the real socialists, will feel the pain of a proper socialist and workerist party in opposition. The SACP lobbied for Numsa’s expulsion – the enmity between the SACP’s Blade Nzimande and Jim is legendary – but it almost certainly overplayed its hand and should expect much dissension and perhaps many defections in the months ahead. President Jacob Zuma may also feel temporarily relieved to be rid of this adder in the ANC bosom, but he will almost certainly find himself under even more pressure from within his own party after this week’s events. His political career just became a little bit shorter. The SACP has been Zuma’s most faithful political bodyguards and its reward was that almost its entire senior leadership was taken up in Zuma’s cabinet or provincial governments. Zuma’s record as leader of the ANC is abysmal. During its first 95 years, the ANC only had one major split when the PAC broke away in 1959, and a minor one when Bantu Holomisa quit in 1996. (The formation of Inkatha as a cultural movement in 1975 can’t really be seen as a split.) During Zuma’s seven years as leader, the party had three major defections: Cope, the EFF and now the Numsa grouping’s breakaway. The Numsa leaders have indicated that they planned to launch a Democratic Front next month – in fact, it has already launched some structures in several provinces, mobilising around local service delivery, health and education. It is no coincidence that they chose that name: it evokes the memory of the popular United Democratic Front of the 1980s, a broad movement of apartheid opponents. It seems obvious that the idea is to unite all forces that are unhappy with the Zuma-ANC and the status quo under this banner. A workers’ and socialist party with Numsa at its centre is likely to be launched next year and will be part of this front. It would be clever strategy to do this separate from the broad front, because large sectors of the electorate are not primarily attracted to a workers’ party. The municipal elections are scheduled for 2016. The new Democratic Front, if it is indeed going to be launched in a few weeks’ time, would thus have more than a year to mobilise if they want to put up candidates. The DA’s intelligence is that they would get more support in the local elections than at the May general elections, and the EFF also believes it will get considerably more than the million votes it received in May. If the new Democratic Front does field candidates in 2016, the ANC could potentially lose control of many municipalities, including the metros of Johannesburg and Port Elizabeth. There hasn’t been considerable affinity between Vavi, Jim and their colleagues and Julius Malema and the rest of the EFF leadership, but power politics can make strange bedfellows. Labour relations will surely be affected by the developments. Cosatu could soon find itself a shadow of its former self. Already the leadership of seven Cosatu unions have indicated that they could follow Numsa. After Cosatu’s once biggest union, NUM, lost many members to Amcu, Numsa was the federation’s biggest union with some 350 000 members. Numsa is set to attract even more members from other unions now. They have been recruiting in other sectors for some time – breaching the one union, one industry principle was one of the charges against them. Initially, the new competition among unions will probably lead to more militant wage demands. This will likely manifest strongly with the public sector wage negotiations next year. Most of the unions in the sector are still in Cosatu and they will be tempted to demonstrate their militancy. But in the long term, the breakup of Cosatu is probably going to be more good than bad for labour relations – and for governance. The influence of Cosatu in government as member of the Tripartite Alliance with the ANC and SACP turned out to be disastrous in recent years. Numsa may be radical in its proposals for economic policy, but it has always been a mature and responsible union and a demanding yet reliable negotiating partner. It hasn’t lost its focus on the real interests of its members as NUM had done – as borne out by the Marikana crisis. Numsa has been the ANC and government’s fiercest critics regarding corruption, nepotism, cadre deployment, enrichment, selective black economic empowerment and expensive vanity projects. If it is going to be more effective in opposing these evils as a political movement and an independent union, South Africa as a whole can only benefit. Having said all that, we should keep in mind that the drama hasn’t yet played itself out and there might be a few twists in the tale. But there can be no doubt that the ground under our feet has shifted significantly.
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 06:01:55 +0000
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