Has the market correction finally begun? "With the market topping this week just 3 points below my ideal target of 1708 on the E-mini S&P futures that I noted the last two weeks, not hitting the target has actually left me with some questions about whether we have now begun the larger correction we have been expecting. While the pattern off the high can be viewed as having begun that correction, without minimal follow through with a break of 1680 ESU3 +0.02% , I cannot yet give the sell signal. The issue I have with the top we made at 1705ES is that there is no clear 5 wave pattern into that high. This leaves us with the question as to whether that was a higher b-wave within a much larger wave iv. If that is indeed the case, then the pattern we have been working on since we bottomed at 1680ES is a (1) (2) set up for wave v, which has a target in the 1717ES region. Under this scenario, the market must hold support now at 1680ES, and then move strongly through the 1696ES level, which would likely provide us with a nice gap up on Monday. But even within a potentially bullish move up, the 1699ES region still stands as a major confluence of Fibonacci resistance. But if the market is able to move through it, then I will be looking for a target of 1717ES. However, even with the "mess" we had moving into the 1705ES top this past week, we can also consider that the top of the market in an ending diagonal with a truncated 5th wave (a rare pattern, indeed), which now means we are in the initial throes of the decline which will target the 1670 level at a minimum, if this is green wave (4), or even take the market all the way down to the 1630ES region within the next week or two for a larger yellow wave 1. As we have mentioned for some time now, a break below 1660ES opens the door to this larger correction, which will likely target the 1500 region by the time it has completed. The market is now in a potential transition phase, and has to show us its next card over the next day or two. Important resistance resides between 1696-1699ES, with very important support residing at 1680ES and 1660ES. In the simplest terms, a breakout over resistance has me targeting 1717ES, whereas a breakdown of 1680ES has me watching the 1660/70ES support region for a potential green (4) bottom, setting us up for a final rally, which could be as much as 70 points, before the correction into the fall takes hold. However, if 1660ES breaks down over the next week, then we are targeting the 1630ES region, and potentially a bit lower, to complete wave 1 of the yellow c-wave, which, after a corrective rally into the end of the month, will take us towards our 1500 region targets." marketwatch/story/has-the-market-correction-finally-begun-2013-08-12?dist=tbeforebell
Posted on: Tue, 13 Aug 2013 00:00:36 +0000
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