Have Phoenix Suns Hit a Wall?: Over the last year and change, the Phoenix Suns have gone from darling to disappointment, their standing within the Western Conference an unremitting roller coaster, their immediate future an open-ended mystery. Last season was one of guts and glory—an alleged tankers tale turned fairytale. A young roster and rookie head coach came of age, marching into the hearts and homes of NBA fans, using an innovative brand of oft-positionless basketball to win 48 games. This season was supposed to offer more. Phoenix invested in Marcus and Markieff Morris, brought in Isaiah Thomas and retained Eric Bledsoe. Last years surprise was sneaking up on no one. The Suns were making the most of now, trying to contend for a playoff spot in the contender-cramped West. But after an underwhelming start to 2014-15, in which the 13-14 Suns have played themselves outside the playoff picture, doubt must once again begin bubbling to the surface. Has this model perhaps peaked, running into a wall that demands alternative direction? Or are the Suns, despite their fading sparkle, still on the right track? Early-Season Blues Aided in part by the Oklahoma City Thunders injury woes, the Suns have spent most of this season inside postseason territory. They began 2014-15 at 12-8, clinging to the Wests eighth and final playoff spot, a mere few games ahead of the whole-again Thunder. Questions as to whether the Suns put enough distance between themselves and those nipping at their heels—Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Denver Nuggets—were answered swiftly. A six-game slide forced them back into lottery territory, where they remain, still clasping to the hope that theyre a playoff team. Little about their performance reinforces that hope. The Suns six-game losing streak would have been extended to seven, if not for the late-game bloopers and blunders of the plummeting Charlotte Hornets. Compared to last season, their offense is uneven and aimless, bogged down by the presence of too many ball-handlers and not enough movement. Their defense is equally jumbled, seemingly incapable of overcoming the size disadvantages they deliberately create. Its no surprise, then, with neither an offense nor defense that ranks inside the top 10 in efficiency, that the Suns are pacing themselves toward a fumbled encore: The numbers themselves arent terrible, the disparity between this season and last far from massive. But the Suns still havent been good enough. This, despite the relative success of their three-headed backcourt monster. Although it took some time—specifically when running with all three at once—the Suns have found a way to outscore opponents with two of Goran Dragic, Thomas and Bledsoe in the game: Note that Dragic and Thomas have only played two minutes together without Bledsoe, hence their absurd net rating. Regardless, the Suns mishmash of point guards has worked. While their defense is worse with all three in the game, they pump in 114.6 points per 100 possessions, which would rank as the leagues best offense. Still, its the makeup of this roster that continues to betray them. Devoid of nearly any size, the Suns are grabbing just 48.3 percent of all available rebounds, tying them for the leagues fourth-worst mark. They rank 25th in rim protection as well. Packed with ball-handlers, theyre also overly self-sufficient. They rank 21st in passes per game and 27th in assist percentage. These guys are all very good offensive players, Hornacek said, per AZCentral Sports Paul Coro. They think they can take their guys at all times. Sometimes it works; sometimes it doesnt. They should be good enough offensively where they can create something for a teammate. Things are even hairier when games are on the line. In clutch situations—defined as the final five minutes of contests with a five-point margin or less—the Suns rebounding and assist rates are markedly lower. And though their defense improves, their offense struggles, often breaking down. Four of their six straight losses were close games, and during those clutch situations, the Suns sets devolved into low-percentage displays of chucking. As Bright Side Of The Suns Dave King wrote: In those losses, 62% of all their field goal attempts in those final minutes were three-point attempts, but they only made 23% of them. (On the season, 31% of the Suns shots are threes, of which they make 37%). Thats staggeringly bad, yet it passes the eye test. When the game is close, the Suns are taking the easy way out by hoisting threes like a spirited game of beer pong. And when they miss, they take even more. Such is the danger of fielding so many perimeter-oriented players. The Suns lack both a legitimate post presence and rim protector, and they rely too heavily on mismatches to get through—even in fourth quarters, when things tighten up and penetration lanes tend to close. This is no recipe for postseason contention. Rather, its one that will pin the Suns to another lottery finish. Progressing Problems There is no end in sight to the Suns struggles. Even if they finish out 2014-15 on a tear, theres little chance they make the playoffs. Oklahoma City is already rocketing up the Western Conference ladder following the returns of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Both teams are now one game under .500, and the Thunder have an improving offense to go along with their fourth-place defense. Which team is more likely to displace the eighth-place Pelicans? Exactly. Now, the Suns do own the rights to the Minnesota Timberwolves (top-12 protected) and Los Angeles Lakers (top-five protected) first-round draft picks, in addition to their own, per RealGM. Hovering around .500 should, in theory, net them at least two lottery picks to deepen the roster with. But Gerald Green and Dragic, a max-contract candidate, are slated to reach free agency this summer, putting the Suns at a crossroads: Do they invest tens of millions of dollars in this core—the one that wont make the playoffs once again—or do they break up the band (aka the backcourt) and balance out the roster? The answer should be obvious, and it may involve the Suns making moves sooner rather than later. Caveats aside, there is every reason to believe the Suns will trade Bledsoe, or one of their other flashy point guards, in the next few months, Bleacher Reports Howard Beck wrote. Its the logical move, competitively and financially. Seven of the Wests teams are on track to win 65 percent or more of their games. Playoff hopefuls cannot foot expensive salary bills for lottery appearances or even eighth place and the early exit it promises. Change must be in the cards. Real, substantial change. The Suns will owe $50-plus million in salary for 2015-16 before re-signing Dragic or Green, and they still dont have a bona fide superstar. Standing pat is to bank on a similar product generating better finishes. Unrealistic finishes. Impossible finishes. Bittersweet though ditching their innovative roster structure may be, these Suns dont have a choice. Theyre mediocre and incomplete, playing in a conference that demands near-perfection. And while they turned heads last season, the mystery is gone. That was their ceiling—the one that wasnt high enough then and is nowhere near high enough now. *Stats via Basketball-Reference and NBA are accurate as of games played Dec. 16, 2014. Read more NBA news on BleacherReport #NBA #NBAPacific #PhoenixSuns #Opinion #fantasybasketball
Posted on: Thu, 18 Dec 2014 09:10:24 +0000
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