Heads up! Our weather will radically shift from record-breaking arctic cold to a potential severe weather outbreak this Saturday. One way to forecast the weather is to compare weather patterns predicted by computer models with similar weather patterns from the past. We call these past weather patterns analogs. If you look at all the severe weather reports from the top 15 analogs for Saturdays predicted weather pattern, you get the following maps. One map I saved from yesterdays output, the other is from todays output. Both show a large number of tornadoes stretching from Texas into the Deep South. Does this mean were going to have a tornado outbreak on Saturday? No. Several of the analogs show NO severe weather at all. But does this mean we *could* have a tornado outbreak on Saturday? Yes, it is possible, but only IF the current computer projections verify. The key here is the track and strength of an upper level low that is currently over the north Pacific Ocean where observations are sparse. As it gets closer to our observation network, I would expect the computer forecasts to shift a bit in the days ahead. We will see. One interesting analog I see on both maps is October of 2006. On October 12-13, a major lake effect snow event took place over Buffalo, NY. Four days later, a major tornado outbreak occurred right here over Southeast Texas and Louisiana. Fast forward to today. A major lake effect snow event just took place near Buffalo, NY. Four days later would be Saturday...will history repeat itself? Time will tell. The final map attached to this post shows the current Day 4 severe weather outlook for the US, with a risk area drawn right over our part of the state. Stick with us here at ABC13 and well keep you updated on the latest forecast projections for Saturday.
Posted on: Wed, 19 Nov 2014 17:15:00 +0000
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