Hello! Bets won: 28 Bets lost: 10 Im glad both LDLC and Fnatic won against NaVi and VP, Im able to add 2 more wins :) Also for the bets won/lost counter above, I am not skipping any matches. I will make a choice of who will win in my eyes, but please make sure you at least do a similar portion bet to what I have recommended. Also, please dont have me as your only source of betting! Im only here to bet based on what I think the true odds are...make sure you check reddit, HLTV match histories, focs betting advice, CS:GL BA, and other pages to get a good idea of who to bet on - its almost always a bad idea to put all your eggs in one basket :P Match Information Date: 2nd Of November Time: 10:30 CET Tournament/League: ESWC 3rd Place Decider LAN/Online: LAN Maps: BO3 TBA Virtus.Pro: Snax, Neo, Taz, pasha, byali Na`Vi: seized, Edward, Zeus, starix, GuardiaN Current CS:GO Lounge odds for this matchup 48:52 in favor of NaVi, but with how NaVi and VP have been performing over the entire tournament (pretty consistent actually), Im going to rate this as another 50:50 best of 3 series, MAYBE 55:45. Im going to wait for lounge odds though, and will edit this post ASAP to tell you who I will bet on, based on odds. Im going to guess that VP will go up to 60% in a few hours though, then I think its a good choice to bet small-medium on NaVi (as its a 50-50 matchup, and we still have a good chance to lose). I recommend that you only bet on this match if you use 10% of your bankroll or less (small-medium bet), as a rule of thumb. The reasoning behind the fact that I rate this matchup as a 50:50 or 55:45 is the fact that its a LAN event - there is almost always a difference in performance seen in many teams we all know (NaVi, Mouzesports, Cloud9, etc). We all know that NaVi is a better team on LAN, and the performance they showed us in this tournament is no exception, putting up a great fight against LDLC (which I think is the #1 team ATM). Any team that manages to pull off 6 wins or more against LDLC on CT side has my respect; we saw how LDLC 14-1d Titan today on inferno (they did this to Fnatic in the past as well). VP on the other hand havent really done anything spectacular, they won against an underperforming dignitas in a close best of 3 (with the exception of device and fetish, check their KD spreads hltv.org/match/2293389-dignitas-virtuspro-eswc-2014). While it looks like VP flat out stomped Dignitas just by looking at the KD spread, throughout the BO3 Dignitas tilted when it came to strats given out from VP. This resulted in a 16:12 loss - Dignitas lost a fair amount of rounds due to tilt and mechanical misplay, in my opinion. Comparing NaVi to Dignitas right now, I think that NaVi were better than Dignitas in terms of holding/peeking angles, and making smart team decisions. This match could go either way, and is a 50-50 to 55-45 match in favor of NaVi. Only bet if you use around 10% or less of your bankroll here, since its basically a coin flip. Im expecting to see 2/3 CT sided maps in this BO3, with each team winning the map they chose CT side on. This BO3 has a good chance of coming to a 3rd map. My recommendation: Skip this match if youre serious about building a bankroll with the given odds (50-50), otherwise if you like coinflips either team wouldnt be a bad choice. My personal coinflip would be on NaVi though :). Ill give an update at the bottom of the post if I do choose to bet on NaVi! If you had to all in on this match, betting on either team has a 50% or so chance of winning - good luck! ________________________________________ Match Information Date: 2nd of November, 2014 Time: 03:00 CET Tournament/League: ESWC 2014 (Finals) LAN/Online: LAN Maps: BO3 TBA LDLC : shox, NBK, SmithZz, Happy, kioShiMa Fnatic : olofmeister, JW, KRIMZ, flusha, pronax Oh boy, its almost like another coin flip - except the odds are mismatched around 5%, in favor of Fnatic. This is another neck and neck match, and I dont recommend anything above a small bet here, once again (10% of your inventory or so). I dont think either team will end up stomping the other, but I can see LDLC winning 2-0 if LDLC start off CT side on a CT sided map (going to happen), and LDLC get enough T side rounds to lock down the second game with their CT side. Although Im not the best on map picks myself, I think we will see inferno, overpass, and dust 2. Thats my guess though on maps, I could be very wrong with maps :P As for the online--->LAN transition, I think LDLC also has the advantage here. Its very minimal, but I personally notice that LDLC are more fluid with team decisions on LAN. LANatic doesnt really seem to be different from online Fnatic, but Fnatic in general is a dominant team in the professional counterstrike scene. Im making this analysis assuming that both teams are on form, it would then be a fun matchup to see. On the other hand, weve seen both teams go on tilt before - then I will expect to see a one sided stomp, which is why Im not betting medium on LDLC. Im going to bet on LDLC based on odds, but its not a bad choice to bet Fnatic either. If you really need to use your skins, either team is an ok choice. I just have a feeling that LDLC will win though, and am playing the odds since theyre rated 44% on CS:GO Lounge. I will most likely bet small on LDLC, and will update the post before the game starts. Skip this match if you cant afford to lose your last skins, this is another coinflip. _______________________________ My recommendatons: NaVi | SKIP | VP (unless you like coinflips, then either team isnt bad to bet on) LDLC | SKIP | Fnatic (given current odds of 55:45 odds in favor of Fnatic, if you like coinflips either team isnt bad to bet on) TL;DR, I really recommend that you skip both of these matches, unless you want to throw in some skins that youre totally fine losing - kind of like a ticket to watch the match. The CS:GO Lounge odds are pretty accurate IMO, at least for now. ________________________________ My predictions: (bets won/lost score counter) NaVi>VP LDLC>Fnatic _________________________________ My bets: [Possibly coming], waiting for CS:GO Lounge odds to settle, then Ill make a choice Im thinking of placing a low-medium bet on LDLC,as I can afford to roll the dice. LDLC have the home advantage and have only 42% odds on lounge as of now....if they go anywhere near 40% before the match starts, then I will definitely place a bet on them. I recommend to wait and see where the odds shift after major betting sources post, such as CS:GL BA and CS:GO Bets Guru. _________________________________ Best regards, IRageQuitHard
Posted on: Sat, 01 Nov 2014 18:13:13 +0000