Hello Delmarva So a Nor`Easter is about to be in the making and effecting our weather in the next upcoming days. Again this will be a RAIN only event! So the models are slowing the beginning stages of this storm. Im looking for conditions to start showing their signs from south to north with cloud cover starting around mid afternoon for southern Delmarva. By evening everyone should have cloud cover with precipitation showing up after midnight from the south. If we look at the first picture it is the GFS QPF. Basically what we see is from the Bay Bridge to Ocean City south we can expect to see 1 - 1.5 inches of rain. North we can expect to see 1.5 - 2.0 inches. Some locally heavy spots mostly near the coast could see up to 3 inch. This is a reasonable dataset. Second picture is of the NAM. It shows the storm on top of Cape May NJ at 10am Tuesday morning. Thus is also an excellent dataset. But past this time models go there own way. The GFS takes the storm out of here. The NAM does the same but a little slower. Now the Euro keeps this storm around for a while as it turns into a cutoff low pressure. This is shown in the third picture. The last picture shows % chances of seeing 4 of snow from this storm. As you can see most of Maryland other then the mountain areas are snow free. The GFS now is trying to show wrap around moisture from the storm returning it as snow. I call bull crap because the upper levels will be no where cold enough to support snow! There is NO arctic air with this storm. What I do expect? Heavy rains with the possibility of areal flooding in low lands especially on the northern parts of Delmarva. As 1-3 inches can be expected across Delmarva. Coastal flooding will occur also. This storm will be close to our area during local high tides. We can expect seas to be 1.5 - 3 ft above normal. Worst area appears to be around Rehoboth Beach north into the Delaware Bay. As piling of water is to be expected. Winds will be quite gusty. Most of Delmarva can expect winds in the 20-30 mph zone with gusts up to 40 mph. Now the coastal areas can expect winds of 20-40 mph with gusts on the coastline up to 50+ mph. Gale warnings and storm warning for the ocean along with small craft advisories on the Chessy. The worst of the storm as of right now seems to be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor conditions and we will update as needed. Enjoy DW
Posted on: Mon, 08 Dec 2014 02:13:38 +0000