Hello everyone, firstly Id like to express my happiness towards those who received good rains over the past week. Any rain is welcomed given the current drought situation. To those who missed out or received very little I hope the next one doesnt forget you. I have shared some data maps showing the 4 day total amount that was forecast, the August long term average and what actually fell up til 9am this morning over the past week. Yes unfortunately some places received considerably less than others however in general a majority of what was forecast did actually fall. A band through central and southern inland QLD missed out somewhat as the surface and upper level trough moved east, this is something that simply can not be accurately forecast no matter what or how much data you look at. Mother Nature has the final say. We saw record daily August rainfall across a few locations in SW QLD, many areas received between 25 to 50mm, a good number of locations between 50 and 100mm even some exceeding 100mm for the event. What Id like to make mention to is how forecasts are written not just by myself but other various outlets... Widespread = large areas, Likely = a good chance, Isolated = 10% of a coverage area, Possible = it could happen. I am very careful how I write forecasts however many people dont quiet understand and take full notice. As far as Im concerned this system was well forecast across networks with good accuracy using all the available forecast data offered. Fingers crossed follow up rain is not to far away! Regards ~ Jeff Higgins ~
Posted on: Sun, 17 Aug 2014 07:12:05 +0000
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