Hello everyone, thank you all for the nice comments, likes and shares, regarding my last post. I want to re-emphasize that post was put out 8 days in advance, and the computer models are going to dance around between now and next week. No one should change their plans at this time. I will feel very confident in this forecast when the computer models show consistency and more agreement. As of this morning, just like last night when I posted, the latest computer model runs are still not in agreement and only 1 model continues to be consistent in bringing snow and much colder air to Colorado Wednesday night and Thursday. I will say I usually lean heavily on that one particular computer model (the ECMWF model), but I still want to see it continue to show me the same solutions with each run, and I definitely want to see some of the other long range models hop on aboard with the ECMs solution. One great example of the complete disagreement is the ECMWF versus the GFS computer model. The ECM is showing a strong Arctic mass pushing into the state Wednesday night into Thursday, whereas the GFS model has a strong High Pressure Ridge over the Rockies. This would result in temps approaching the 60s, with dry conditions, along the Front Range on Thanksgiving Day, whereas for this same day, the ECM has highs barely getting out of the single digits, along with a decent snowfall, on Thanksgiving. Hows that far a HUGE DISAGREEMENT. The GFS model did not come around to last weeks big freeze and snows until the last minute, but I still dont like to see this type of computer model disagreement. One of the other long range computer model is smack dab in the middle of these two on TG but with no moisture. Thats a flip flop from yesterday morning. Nothing unusual at all to see this type of flip flopping. I am at this time hitching my wagon to the ECMWF solution because of its day to day consistency over the last 4 days, but its still on an island right now. That is why I am saying please dont change your Thanksgiving plans just yet if it involves driving around the Colorado or to a nearby state. I would hate to alter someones holiday plans on a forecast that could very well change. My goal, this far in advance, is to give you all some kind of idea what may happen during the holiday week. Once I have run through another days worth of computer model runs, I will begin to hone this forecast. Ill have another post out some time on Friday. Hope you all have a wonderful day! :-)
Posted on: Thu, 20 Nov 2014 21:16:11 +0000
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