Here is a concise report from the weather channel. I cut some - TopicsExpress

Here is a concise report from the weather channel. I cut some portions leaving only the ones that are important. As of 8 p.m. EST Thursday, JTWC ( US Military Joint Typhoon Warning Center) lowered its estimate of Hagupits top winds to 145 mph, meaning it is no longer a super typhoon. However, it is still the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane. First, the typhoon is expected to approach the eastern shores of the central Philippines (Eastern Visayas Region) on Saturday local time. There is still some timing uncertainty, as the typhoon is expected to slow its forward motion. However, the most likely time frame for landfall appears to be Saturday evening local time (Saturday morning U.S. time). During this initial period of contact with land, Hagupit will likely unleash its most powerful winds. It should be at least a Category 3 equivalent tropical cyclone by that time, but could easily still be a Category 4 or 5 storm. In areas where the wind blows onshore, very dangerous storm surge is likely. Philippine officials have issued storm surge advisories for a number of communities at risk. Some communities on the islands of Samar and Leyte are at risk of storm surge up to 4 meters (13 feet) according to the alerts. The latest rainfall forecast from the U.S.-run GFS computer model. This gives a broad idea of where the heaviest rain will fall, but details will depend on the typhoons track and interaction with mountains. As Hagupit grinds west or northwest across the Philippines, the danger will gradually transition from one of wind damage and storm surge to one of heavy rainfall. Again, there is some uncertainty in Hagupits path and forward speed, but in general its center should move northwest in the general direction of Metro Manila. The process is expected to be agonizingly slow -- potentially taking 72 hours to move from the eastern Philippines to Metro Manila. In general, the slower a tropical cyclone moves, the higher its rainfall potential. Hagupit will be moving along very slowly over an area with rugged terrain. As a result, rainfall totals could be extraordinarily high -- locally exceeding 2 feet.

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