Here is the summary of my talk today at Georgetown Univ. I collected them from twitter, they are just flashpoints. Thanks to Gavin Schalliol for tweeting them - The MB has 3 key features: first, it survived four autocratic regimes. It has longevity. second, MB is resilient and robust. It can survive losses of key members well. Very hierarchical & disciplined. third, its not just political party; its a broad-based social movement with internal ideological differences. - The MB has a highly centralized decision-making power but implementation is done independently by members. - Ideological and generational differences within MB show that its not monolithic. - Even geographical differences among MB members between urban & upper Nile membership. - How do we reconcile the MBs effective organization & social movement with their terrible governance performance? - During the 80s-90s had reformists in power in MB, but since 1995, its been shifting towards more conservative members. - Khairat al-Shater has been a major conservative influence on MB, sidelined reformers. - Decision to protest rather than negotiate post-coup shows influence of conservative wrong of MB. - Division of MB is unlikely. It has always derived unity from oppression. It can use the crackdown to solidify is ranks. - When Nasser repressed the MB, he created Sayyid Qutb & made him influential. - Might the MB reform? Unlikely. Its first goal is survival now. No change in the MB absent a credible democratic process. - Its a big challenge for the MB to expand its support beyond its central base now. - MB, after taking parliament, pment had no power so they fielded a prez candidate. Internal vote whether to run was 56-52. - Psychology is important too. They never had run for real office before. They were professionals, not politicians. - MB was a conservative regime taking over after a revolution. This was going to create problems. - Immunity for MoD (I.e. Sisi) and lack of civilian oversight of military budget means new constitution will be worse.
Posted on: Tue, 29 Oct 2013 01:24:39 +0000
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