Here is todays thunderstorm and convection outlook for the rest of the day. This is issued by The National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma.... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN WA INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OK/AR/TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NY/PA... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF WASHINGTON EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. STORMS WITH LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OVER PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION. ...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS... A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WA/ORE INTO ID AND WESTERN MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DURING THE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT WHERE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL RESULT IN A GREATER RISK OF SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL OR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY AFTER DARK. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LESS BULLISH ON EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT...SO HAVE REDUCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION. CONSENSUS OF MODELS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT INITIATION OF STORMS OVER EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD WILL BE VERY ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO HAVE REDUCED SEVERE PROBS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ...ARKLATEX... A REMNANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE SCATTERED ACCAS/HIGH-BASED STORMS ARE FORMING OVER CENTRAL AR. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME COMBINATION OF THESE TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION WILL SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH 30+ KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MORE RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THAT A BOWING STRUCTURE MAY FORM IN THIS REGION AND POSE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TX BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER DARK. ...NEW ENGLAND... A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWING INCREASING ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE INTO EASTERN QUEBEC. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. 12Z OBSERVED AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY STEEP TODAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY BE RATHER HIGH...ITS UNCLEAR HOW MANY STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
Posted on: Wed, 23 Jul 2014 19:18:59 +0000
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