Heres the thunderstorm and convection outlook for Tuesday, as issued by the Storm Predictions Center in Norman.... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NY TO KY... ...SUMMARY... STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD THROUGH NEBRASKA PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY TRACKING ENEWD THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...REACHING NY BY 03/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD TEND TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE OZARK PLATEAU WWD INTO NRN OK...AND THEN ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. ...NRN APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-SOUTH... SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN OK ENEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU TO INDIANA AND OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISPLACED SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT AND SUPPORTED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEBRASKA TROUGH AND WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A 30-40 KT WSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT CONCERN REMAINS FOR ASSOCIATED EXTENSIVE CLOUDS LIMITING DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE POOR 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES...SOME SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES/ SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY PRIMARILY FROM SRN OH/WV WWD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE MARGINAL WITH NEWD EXTENT. A STRONG BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...WITH 700-MB WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND 500-MB WINDS OF 50-60 KT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY TO NY. THIS AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AS RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDORS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS THAT COULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK FROM CENTRAL/ERN KY AND SRN OH TO SRN NY. BULK SHEAR WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER WITH SRN AND WRN EXTENT...LIMITING THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INTO THE MID-SOUTH. ...CENTRAL AND ERN KS/WRN MO TO NORTHERN OK... LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE TUESDAY TONIGHT AS A RELATIVELY DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH AND A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY EWD-EXPANDING HIGH PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. WLYS WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING MAINLY A MULTICELL STORM MODE. THE FORECAST FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
Posted on: Tue, 02 Sep 2014 07:07:40 +0000
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