Hey everyone.... With the holidays coming on I figured I needed to start saying something about the sequence of THREE impressive storms which will affect parts of the nation. 1) December 19 - 23. The Appetizer. Cyclogenesis near Galveston TX (origins in system now off the coast of California), then track to Columbus GA....Fayetteville NC.....200 miles south of Nantucket MA. Heavy rain and thunder Texas and Deep South, some severe weather threats close to the coast. Steady rain along and above Interstate 20 with snow and sleet involved in lower/middle Appalachia. Rain that forms along the Atlantic Coastal Plain above Richmond VA to Boston MA will shift to mostly snow. Threats for accumulating snow are rising in the Mid-Atlantic region (DCA....BWI....PHL....NYC), and if ECMWF scheme is right at least moderate amounts of the white stuff are possible. 2) December 22 - 26. The Big Kahuna storm. Upper level disturbance digs into northern Mexico. Reforms into frontal wave near Corpus Christi TX. Deepens as shortwave energy drops southward from Montana, which sets up a east, then northeast motion. Estimated track now is along Gulf Coast through New Orleans LA, then Valdosta GA....Raleigh NC....Salisbury MD....Concord NH....Fort Kent ME. Yes, path scenario is shifting rightward on models and may trend to purely coastal solution that analogs favor! This system will drop lots of snow on Appalachia and perhaps the lower Great Lakes, while being the draw for much colder air east of the Rocky Mountains. 3) December 27 - 30. The Finisher looks to organize near Brownsville TX, progress to Jacksonville FL, then move up and off of the East Coast by 125 - 175 miles through the 40/70 Benchmark. Analogs and ensemble depictions point toward a serious snow event in parts of Dixie and the Atlantic Coastal Plain. And yes, it looks VERY cold east of the Rocky Mountains in the 11 - 15 day time frame. Happy Holidays! :)
Posted on: Sun, 14 Dec 2014 15:15:45 +0000
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