Heydar Jemal: WAR BE That was the cause of the outbreak in Nagorno-Karabakh, why Western countries will not support Yerevan than can end Sochi meeting between the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, and much more in an interview with the Caucasian policy, said the chairman of the Islamic Committee of Russia, the famous Russian social and political activist Heydar Jemal. - In your opinion, the actions of which side now led to the aggravation of the Karabakh conflict? - Rapid growth in the confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia these days is directly related to the situation in Ukraine. The annexation of the Crimea, the fighting in the south-east of Ukraine led to a serious deterioration in the foreign political situation in Russia. As a result, there were preconditions in order to sharpen the struggle for Karabakh, without fear of arbitration in Moscow. It is logical and predictable that the Ukrainian crisis generates an attempt to solve the Karabakh issue. - To solve this issue, or Armenian Azerbaijani side? - Of course, the initiative belongs to Azerbaijan, since he enjoys the cramped position of Russia as the main pillar of the regime in Yerevan. Armenia - a military and geopolitical partner of Moscow. And while Russia is fully absorbed by the problem of the South-East, the problem of the Crimea, it has sharply reduced the maneuver, reduce the possibility of being distracted by other issues. Russia has always been a major obstacle to the solution of the Karabakh issue. It is logical that Baku advantage of this situation and has raised the level of tension. The history of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia suggests that the Karabakh conflict should be solved by military force. - Azerbaijan is not afraid to allies of Armenia as the United States or Europe, suggesting that their attention is diverted to the Gaza Strip, on the Iraq crisis? - I would not write the United States and Europe as an ally of Armenia. Well, how can they be allies, if Yerevan is a close partner of Moscow and Tehran? It would be kind of a glaring contradiction in the fact that Armenia is an ally of the West, while at the same time ally of anti-Western forces. There is a definite partnership secured largely lobbying efforts of a very powerful Armenian diaspora, which is in France, and the United States. But the influence of the diaspora itself does not lead to the phenomenon of partnership between the two countries. In addition, Armenia - a supporter of Israel. Between Armenia and Israel, there is quite a serious conflict, and that alone is an obstacle to the union of Armenia with the West. - The reason is that Israel cooperate with Baku, including in matters of supply of arms? - Israel cooperated with doerdoganovskim regime of Turkey. Moreover, the Armenians have a tradition of supporting Palestine, the Arab world as a whole. However, the Armenians claim that their holocaust was used. They have their own genocide, about which the Turks and the international pro-Turkish party there is reasonable doubt. Armenians are actively carried out the genocide of Muslims in the Turkish and Azerbaijani villages. Israel, however - this is not the main reason for the differences between Armenia and the West, even though the Israeli influence is not allowed to acknowledge the Armenian genocide in most Western countries. The main reason why the Armenians can not be really an ally of the West - that is their focus on the liberal wing of the so-called international community. Armenians are friends with the United States and France. For the same reason the Armenians will never be supported by London and world Anglophile party. A Baku traditional and most definitely is adjacent to the Anglophile party, which nowadays come out of hiding, to which she was driven into the joint Soviet-American forces after World War II. - The UK supports Azerbaijan? - On the one hand, Azerbaijan throws Tehran call. However, Azerbaijan is the third after Iraq and Iran the country with the dominant Shiite population and pro-British traditions. Modern Azerbaijan inherited this tradition of Iranian monarchy, as was part of the Persian Empire. The UK has always supported Iran against the Ottomans. But it is not just history. Today, London became the capital of the traditionalist club where there are headquarters so to say classic esotericism. We have in mind the Sufi Tariqa and the highest echelons of the Shiite clergy. In contrast to the Great Tradition New Age - neospiritualizm pop orientation - entrenched in the citadel of world liberalism USA. World crisis has determined confrontation between these two centers: the liberals and traditionalists. - And this confrontation is transferred to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? - Of course, carries over to the Karabakh conflict. The world is divided between the two centers, the two main opposing forces. As for Armenia, Yerevan depends on the support of Moscow and Tehran and Baku strategically that Russia was under sanctions. It is now part of the axis of evil, turning from questionable partner of the West, in its outspoken opponents. The Cold War began, and now once again working principle of the Friends of the enemy - its enemies. Armenia as one hostile to the West of Russia, thus, also turns into an enemy of the West. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, did everything to assert itself as a partner of the West: the confrontation with Tehran, friendship with Israel ... Iran because of his attempts to improve relations with the United States hands are tied in terms of supporting the Armenians. In addition, the rollback of Tehran in its nuclear program has lowered the value of Armenia as a state of nuclear technology in the strategic calculations of Tehran. Russia is isolated, Iran bound inside their own reformers - this is the ideal situation to solve the long-standing problem of Karabakh. - It turns out that Azerbaijan is a challenge not only in Armenia, but the challenges and Russia are willing to put at stake the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, which, in principle, have been dynamic enough? And this despite the fact that Azerbaijan is connected with Russian cooperation by many threads. - Baku figured out the situation and came to the conclusion that Russia today can not challenge him, can not bang his fist. This is outside the scope of opportunities for modern Russia. The format of the current foreign space in which Russia found itself after the annexation of the Crimea, is radically different from what it was in 2008, when the management took over Medvedev - a completely westernized people, a symbol of the liberal establishment. That when his presidency began the war with Georgia, says a lot. The aim was to promote a Western Russian liberals raise their political status by a small victorious war. For this pro-Western Saakashvili just sacrificed. After the Russian-Georgian war, the political initiative in Moscow was to intercept the party oligarchs abandoning the periphery, respectively, party security services. This however did not happen, there was the infamous tandem and required Swamp ... It has become a logical continuation of the Georgian war. - A logical extension of the Karabakh war, which will be for Russia? - Karabakh war occurs in the face of what Russia can not intervene in this situation. Moscow in general will not be able to respond to the processes that are going on around her. And Baku today operates a win-win, except that a bit too slowly. - So this begs the question. If Baku decided on war, then we must act quickly. We are seeing a different situation, and all the chances that eventually the status quo will remain infallible. - It costs Azerbaijani mentality Azerbaijani character. Maybe they still can not believe his luck, maybe they mysochkah feet check the water temperature - not too cold - before entering into it. For me, it is necessary to beat and beat, not on Nagorno-Karabakh, namely Armenia. Because Nagorno-Karabakh - a local site ... - But this is the important point. Hit on Nagorno-Karabakh - is one thing, but if you hit the Armenia-CSTO, Russia will be obliged to start this war. And Azerbaijan is not ready to fight directly with the Russian ... Obliged - it is one word, enter any - is another. - That is, Russia will not come? - You know, even if you start with Karabakh, anyway, sooner or later going to war with Armenia. But these issues must be resolved quickly, blitzkrieg - for two or three days. You just have to include all the forces that you have. - After a few days in Sochi are to meet the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Two questions arise - why in Sochi, if the Western countries have long monopolized the right to negotiate Aliyev and Sargsyan? And why, then, Ilham Aliyev agreed to a meeting? - Probably cautious. - Ilham Aliyev wants to know what proposals are on the Russian side that says Armenian? Or he will nominate their any conditions? - I think so, if that fight - a fight which then talks? Moscows role as the arbiter of the CIS compromised redrawing of territorial boundaries with their sovereign partners. Georgia wrenched Abkhazia and South Ossetia, from Ukraine - Crimea, what here big brother! Based on this situation, Baku would have to act rapidly and decisively. Baku will not work. And any delay and any loss of pace - its a waste of political capital, which Azerbaijan possessed at the beginning of the confrontation. - Then there is another question - is it possible that Baku pushed to take on this adventure third force? - I have no evidence that someone has advised it. However, it is likely that Ilham could suggest that it is advisable to complicate the general situation of Russia and more aggravation on the Karabakh front. The outbreak of war between Azerbaijan and Armenia will inevitably lead to an explosion in Central Asia. The agenda of the armed conflict between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Already being officious voice in Tashkent calling for a valiant blow bomb Rogun. Given the fact that the Karimov regime is moribund, any drastic action in the region would entail his fall, and then work a domino effect! - And it is likely that Russia will not fall under this cap sanctions, as his time in Iran hit. Did the President of Russia will be able to negotiate directly with the American counterpart? Something will be started as a bargaining chip, and the situation will eventually be resolved? - It is unlikely, because Barack Obama is now lost the initiative in the country. He goes with the flow, the initiative passed to the right and Democrats to the Republicans. Barack Obama is just the kind that governs, in fact, he was just posing as president. He and Kerry today in the train. It is unlikely that Obama can actively do something to promote or mitigate. Now played by other forces - his opponents - Who is this opposing force? - Imperial neocons, Hillary ... - Hillary Clinton? - But she wants to change it ... it Hilari- hawk. Neocons are, metaphorically speaking, Roman orientation. Obama is the same - it is a cosmopolitan, which basically plays hand in hand with the international bureaucracy. - Returning to the United States and Azerbaijan. Washington now has taken a dual position. On the one hand, pressing with the EU on the Baku because of the arrest of Leyla Yunus, was accused of spying for Armenia ... - Her mother is Armenian ... - On the other hand, the United States and the EU is not in a hurry to have an impact on the Karabakh situation ... - I know Leila Yunus even at times of the Popular Front ... - You know her personally? - Yes, but superficially. Understand the situation, which turned out to Azerbaijan today requires real hard steps, especially when dealing with such politicians as mentioned lady. Armenian mother - this is a serious moment in the current environment. All these liberal defenders towards Azerbaijan has always played the role of a fifth column, being armyanofilami, Westerners and universal. West, of course, will emit cries over the fate of Leyla Yunus, a necessary pohryukivanie politically correct that it is possible to ignore. I think that official Baku is exactly what will make. And yet, somehow did not decide the fate of the current conflict, Leila will have to wait. Apparently, the West decided to consider Armenia as part of Russias strategic system. This means certain consequences, negative consequences for the Armenians. - With regard to Armenia. Shortly before the escalation of the conflict was an interesting series of events: sounded provocative statements about the passage of the customs border between Armenia and Karabakh, with Armenias entry into the Eurasian Union. There were statements from the Karabakh side that they are generally considered to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh a single entity, and seven surrounding districts already considered Nagorno-Karabakh. The European side did not give any reaction to it. And a few days before the beginning of an explosion in Yerevan was attended by representatives of the EU in the South Caucasus and on the conflict in Georgia Zalber Herbert, who met with President Serzh Sargsyan. On the agenda, among other things was the theme of Nagorno-Karabakh. Is it possible that the European countries, using the fact that Yerevan is now growing concerns about the EAEC because of sanctions against Russia, Armenia pushed to the escalation of the conflict? - I fully admit it, because long ago remarked, often Western countries lure the intended victim into the trap of showing indifference. Like, its your business, etc. This is an invitation to go further. Suffice it to recall lured Saddam from Kuwait. The same situation may be here: Armenians suggest that it would be nice to make war with Baku, but in fact intend to sacrifice them. - West will play on the side of Azerbaijan to the last? Azerbaijan - oil, Azerbaijan - is the connection with London, Azerbaijan - its very close ties with Israel. Although, I must say that Russia too close ties with Israel, Netanyahu and personal friend of Putin. But I think that geopolitically, when you have to make hard choices, Israel is more likely to lobby for the interests of Baku in the West than in Moscow. Weak Moscow, by the way, are quite satisfied with some of the Zionist establishment. The main part of the political capital, concentrated in the South Caucasus, yet in the hands of Baku. But of course, if he would act as sluggish as it is now, then capital will flow away ... - How will the Sochi meeting? - We still have a couple of days before it, and we need to understand what will happen during this time, because it is very important to arrive than policy at this meeting. If it is the same stagnation as it is now, then most likely, it will talk about the need to restore the status quo, in general, the parties raspolzutsya both boxers after the break. If, however, for the remaining time before the meeting there will be something dramatic that will determine the superiority of one party or another, it may even lead to the disruption of the meeting. - Do you think, as Azerbaijan is ready to retake Karabakh? For a long time the rhetoric of struggle against the external enemy who occupied the territory. And in the name of the struggle to unite the nation must undergo internal and unresolved issues ... What will happen to the nation, which is used to wait for the war, when the war is over? - Why is over? It will end when Armenia will cease to exist.
Posted on: Thu, 07 Aug 2014 17:46:35 +0000
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