Hi all, this post is a duplicate of my previous post except for the order of the maps. I just realized my mistake. I explained everything correctly but just didnt list the maps in the correct order. I hope this didnt cause too much confusion. Map number is the ECMWF. Map number 2 is the Canadian GEM. The third map was listed correctly -- the NCEP CFS model. Sorry for my mistake. _________________________________________________ What a mess the computer models are making for Thanksgiving Day. I am going to keep this post just to Colorado because I need talk about what is now going on as compared to the last time I posted 3 days ago. Good grief, has there been some serious flipping around in the computer models, as I promised would happen. Even some of the reliable consistent runs of models I favor have done a 180 on Thursdays potential snow storm and Arctic blast. That is why I told all of you to please not change your plans based my last update. That was 8 days in advance of Thanksgiving. I have uploaded 3 maps to let you know what I am seeing in my latest analysis and why my Thanksgiving forecast is WAY up in the air. I am hoping for some more consistent runs over the next 24 hours. Map number 1 is the ECMWF and a model I have come to lean on heavily over the last 20 years. It did a major flip flop. For several days it had highs in the single digits on Thursday. The last 3 days of runs, including today, now has highs in the 50s to low 60s across much of the forecast area. I put just a few towns on the maps to give you all some perspective. Now take a look at Map 2, which is the Canadian GEM model. Three days ago, it too had highs in the single digits and low teens on Thursday. It jumped back to 50s to low 60s for 3 days of model runs. So what happened in this mornings run? Boom, back to the teens for highs on Thursday with some light snowfall possible. It brings in the Arctic air mass between 5am and 11am on Thursday morning. Temps should drop all day IF THIS MODEL VERIFIES. Now look at map 3 which is the NCEP CFS model. It shows a strong Arctic surge between Thanksgiving Day and early the following week. I didnt show the precip map with this model, but it is yielding the possibility for a major snow storm during that period. Now you all see what I am up against, and this a small sampling of of the many computer models I am analyzing. I dont seen any consistency right now based on this mornings runs. Its like a bunch of folks arguing over a given topic. Everyone agrees to disagree. These computer models are definitely arguing. Because of this my forecast is more thank likely going to change on Thursday. For now at this very moment in time, Id call for 30s and 40s across the entire forecast area with only a slight chance of moisture. Remember this is based solely on the 5am computer model runs. This could change during the late morning or early evening runs this evening. I wish I could be more definitive right now. Just know there is a very strong Arctic air mass lurking in Canada, poised to drop down over the lower 48 next week. This is why I am only posting this for Colorado because there are too many question marks about how cold and how snowy its going to be next week across much of the country. Stay tuned. Next week is surely going to be very interesting. Many more updates to come on next weeks weather pattern. Have a wonderful weekend!
Posted on: Sun, 23 Nov 2014 08:54:55 +0000
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