Hi everyone - Im back from a short break and back in the chair so here is an update of the profile situation. Ill get to the pricing in a minute as i think there are other things going on that are influencing what is going on in these PMs, and that is Energy Equities and also WTI (as if you hadnt noticed LOL). Well if you have been reading Dan Norcini you will have known that there were these large specs in WTI that have been long & strong since $95 and are now Long Weak and Broke, because most of them as of COB Tuesday last week had not taken anything off the table to speak of when we reached close to $50. This week they have been bleeding from every orifice, and are just about done on their selling IMO. Dont listen to the idiots who say this is the final derivative melt down as its just these large spec nongs who have taken a bath at 50% discount on their net exposure over the last 5 days that has resulted in the Energy equities being clubbed back to their lows - also taking the S&P back briefly under 2000 which has caused all those who read KWN to think that the end of the world is but weeks away (sic) to load up again on Gold thinking that the S&P is imminently going to 1000 points. But here is the important news - WTI has just hit a timing inflection point and should reverse over the coming 24-36 hours sometime - which combined with a dovish FOMC minutes is sure to send the S&P flying up again, and send Gold back under $1200 and into the toilet. Martin Armstrong says this and I completely agree with him on this - you simply cannot look at these markets in isolation - you have to look at all of the major markets to understand what is going on and what the next move is. So not to be outdone on Timing infection points, we also have Gold in exactly the same position (turning either Tues or Wed), and also arguably equities and EUR are in the same boat. So buckle up my friends so you dont get whiplash - because we are about to head in the opposite direction in all these markets if the balance of probability has its way. Now gold closed at $1,216 up over $1197 local value point - but did not really take off from there - so we are going back there again per Steidelmayer.. sorry all you gold (end of the world) bulls. Silver is just oscillating about its lower value area centered on $16.14 and is also in a similar position to Gold.. Back we go in relation to its value point. I tend to think now that this significant timing point in Gold is upon us that a rotation back to the lows (and bottom of Steidelayer ranges at $1,174 and $15.50) are back on the agenda as we head into mid January. The very big picture is sobering. If WTI holds down under $57 for a number of months, (and it should because all the oil producing countries are competing for market share so they can avoid going into budget deficit in this contracting world), then Silver should be trading down well under $14 and Gold should be under $1,100 without any problem based on prior relative trading profiles. The way I see it - ongoing bullish US economic data and the cheap energy will cause an equity bull resurgence that will really stun over the coming 4 months, and take the USD up to new heights punishing gold in the process. The commencement of these moves in anger are merely weeks away IMO.
Posted on: Wed, 07 Jan 2015 02:18:35 +0000
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