Hi everyone, Incredibly tough forecast this afternoon with the 18z models going in completely opposite directions from each other and the relatively established consensus at 12. The GFS and NAM went very warm and bringing little snow to the area except NW hills and instead replacing it with a boatload of sleet, while the 18z RGEM goes absolutely wild with snow amounts with a foot plus for most of the state along with a good amount of sleet. These are radical shifts considering how close we are to the event, and as a result, its shattered whatever confidence I had in our forecast that wed planned to issue for this event. While we said wed have a map out by 6, at this time, our confidence is not high enough to release something without doing some serious analysis and calculations, which will not be done within the next hour. Depending on that analysis, we may decide to wait until after the 0z suite to release a final call map to get a better idea of confidence levels, which would mean a map comes out between 2 and 3 AM tonight. We apologize for the delay, but wed rather wait until we are confident in our forecast to issue it than rush to get something out that is of subpar quality. Thanks for your understanding, we really appreciate it. -SA
Posted on: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 22:08:14 +0000
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