High-chief Humanbeing Oyede Wrote BETWEEN OGUN APC, OSHOBA AND OGUN PDP (An Academic Analysis) Not long ago, I was forced to ask if OGUN APC will be matured enough to manage their political success bearing in mind that before long there will be two factions in APC and hopefully before 2015, PDP will sort out their issues. The 2011 Elections showed basically that, had PDP managed their crises very well (recall OBJ vs. OGD) APC wont have been able to win Ogun State, that Election result proved me right. PDP votes plus PPN votes in some places beat that of APC hands down. The greatest beneficiary of that divide is Governor Senator Ibikunle Amosun. As it stands now, reliable insiders have told me that they are waiting for Oshobas APC Faction to move to PDP before they launch their massive campaign to regain Ogun State. PDP is ready to fight APC Kobo for Kobo. ‘APC National’ has been very slow to halt what seems a near certain exit of the Oshoba Faction from the main stream APC. Should that happen, APC will be the greatest victim of such an ‘IMPLOSION’. APC cannot afford to lose three senators, Oshoba and others to PDP at this critical times while in actual fact, the rating of the Governor is increasingly reducing among the ‘voting populace’ in Ogun state. One thing we have to note is that most of us here on Facebook are not the voting populace. Like Fayemi, all his adverts were for the consumption of Lagos people while Fayose’s campaign was for the consumption of the locals. Here’s the headache for PDP, as much as they are willing to accommodate the ‘break-away’ APC, the question everybody is asking is whether PDP will be generous enough to give all the three senatorial slots to the ’new-comers’. Indeed, only very few parties can afford to dash- out three Senatorial slots and others to ‘new- comers’. For the Oshoba faction, if they don’t join the PDP, both Ogun APC and Oshoba faction will be the greatest losers while PDP will smile to the Bank. Ogun APC will be financially and politically weak should Oshoba group pull out. For us the academic analyst, somebody will stay far away and do theoretical analysis about how APC will win the Election as if they are part of the local voting blocks. I can confirm to you that what PDP has started doing now can be likened to cult followership. At some ward levels, you have to invest at least N2,000 in the party in form of buying a PDP cap or Vest and collect receipt in order for you to have your share of the cake in the ‘INCOMING PDP GOVERNMENT’. Anywhere you mention Governor Amosun, PDP is quick to say ‘ACCUMULATED DEBT’. OGUN APC to be frank, is not really helping matters too, they are now rushing to promote the civil servants especially the Teachers, they are now paying salaries on the 24th of the Month (what has never happened before). In terms of Infrastructure, Ogun APC has done wonders but it remains to be seen how that will materialize into votes for APC. Where do I stand on all this: wait and see!
Posted on: Fri, 18 Jul 2014 11:56:49 +0000
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