Historical Opportunity,Lost? Its a hung assembly in J&K,PDP with 28-out of 87- seats as the largest single party,closely followed by BJP with 25. Voter has clearly rejected the ruling National Conference,along with its partner Congress. Its a mandate for change. Successful completion of a democratic,constitutional process in J&K is,by definition,a victory for India. Still its a case of a lost historical opportunity. I had assessed this election as potentially the single most important assembly election of Independent India. Thats not how it has turned out to be. In the end it has turned out to be one more assembly election leaving room for all kinds of political expediency. The situation can still be deftly handled to re-create the historical opportunity. Not impossible,but,tough now. This was BJPs best chance to come to power in the state. This was Indias best chance to move into position of strength. US has formally moved out of Afghanistan,which struggles with its nascent democracy,which India can help stabilise. You dont need to be a genius to judge that Taliban must be lurking in the shadows to establish control over Afghanistan. Talibans parent Pakistan doesnt want Indias presence in Afghanistan. Hence enter China ,something which is directly detrimental to Indias security interests. Pakistan hovering around the failed state status,is trying to come to terms with the post traumatic stress disorder ( PTSD ) created by Peshawar massacre,hence,at least temporarily unable to sponsor cross border terrorism. Sooner or later Pakistan will continue its policy of bleeding India with a thousand cuts by unleashing terrorist tactics in India. But not now,not for a while. This adds up to separatist,terrorist elements in Kashmir lying low. With the secure stable govt.in Delhi this was BJPs best chance to come to power in J&K. This was Indias best chance to move into such a position of strength that Pakistan,China,US & UN would be required to abide by Indias concerns. PM Modi did everything right. Left no stone unturned to organise relief work in flood hit Kashmir. Focused on development. Spent time in Kashmir valley as no previous PM ever did. With hopes of secure Jammu (with 37 seats) & Ladakh (with 4) behind BJP the strategy was to gain foothold in the Kashmir valley. BJP had opened dialogue with all varied sections of public opinion in Kashmir valley. Sounds all so sound. But thats not how it has worked out. Jammu region gave ( only ) 25 seats & Ladakh,nil-that is to say,Jammu & Ladakh did not stand by BJP as solidly as they were expected to. In turn,Kashmir valley,too,drew blank. PMs public rallies in the valley were well attended & BJP may have scored some votes there,but not enough to win seats. BJPs face in the valley, Hina Bhatt, was leading from a Srinagar constituency for a while,but she lost in the end. This means that the valley remained firmly anti-BJP, didnt buy Modis development sutra. In fact the valley vote swung towards anti-India-pro-separatist sounding PDP & all the seats that BJP got are from Jammu region- this is polarisation of sorts. Now BJP & PDP may still come together in a politically expedient marriage of convenience. But both will be required to compromise their positions. Or non-BJP parties may strike some deal to keep BJP from power. PDPs main political rival is NC. Within J&K PDP & BJP share mutually exclusive turfs. So,anything goes. For J&K there are two contradictory forces which exist simultaneously & are equally valid at one & the same time:- 1:- A strong regional awareness of Kashmiriyat- which translates into anti-Delhi stance & 2:- Delhi-centrism of Kashmir politics. The interplay of these two factors will decide the shape of Kashmir. First factor may make Kashmir defy Delhi & go in for a political arrangement that keeps BJP from power. But the second factor may make Kashmir come to terms with BJP. Its anybodys guess. Historical proportion & potential can still be retrieved. But sadly,as of now,its a historical opportunity lost.
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 19:55:43 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015