How Safe Is Patrick Beverleys Job as Houston Rockets Starting Point Guard?: As the Houston Rockets’ starting point guard Patrick Beverley continues to miss games with injury, the Rockets’ failure to miss him much raises questions about his importance to the starting lineup. It has been demonstrated he is replaceable. That could come from within the existing structure of the team, with Isaiah Canaan taking over the starting duties, or the Rockets could look elsewhere to find someone in a trade. Replacement from Within Canaan has stepped into the starting role, so it may be only a matter of time before he assumes the starting job. But since neither Beverley nor Canaan has established himself as a particularly effective quarterback, it’s feasible that the Rockets look outside the team for a player to acquire via trade. Statistically, Canaan and Beverley are close based on their numbers per 36 minutes: The problem with just comparing their raw numbers is that there is so much disparity in whom each of the Rockets point guards have played with. Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard both have missed significant time due to injury, and that matters. Who a guy plays with can impact his numbers, especially if he’s a role player. Taking the court with stars can increase efficiency and reduce overall numbers, while playing without them can have the opposite effects. Ergo, it’s beneficial to see how the Rockets fare when Beverley and Canaan are running the point in various situations. Utilizing the excellent tool at NBAwowy, I looked at what the Rockets did with Beverley vs. Canaan in several different lineup situations. I compared them with and without Dwight Howard to see how much he impacted their defense. I viewed their respective James Harden numbers to see how much he influenced their offense. I also looked at how they did with Howard and Trevor Ariza (since Beverley is part of their defensive Big Three) and how both players did with Howard, Harden and Ariza as an indication of how they played in the starting lineup. Here are the results: What’s interesting is that Beverley is typically considered the superior defensive player and Canaan the better offensive player. Yet most of the combinations show the opposite—with the Rockets scoring more with Beverley and their opponents faring worse with Canaan. There are two other things that are noteworthy when looking at the table: Houston’s Big Three of Ariza, Howard and Harden does better with Canaan; when Harden is out, Beverley is significantly better than Canaan at running the team. Both of these factors suggest the Rockets may help themselves if they start Canaan and bring Beverley off the bench. If you can improve the starting five and the bench at the same time, it makes sense to do so. Looking Elsewhere Determining who the better starter between Beverley and Canaan is may be a flawed argument, though, in that it assumes that one or both is actually a starting-caliber point guard. And there is reason to believe that neither may be. According to HoopsStats, the Rockets are getting 3.6 assists per game from the position, which is egregiously low. It’s by far the fewest in the league. The New York Knicks, who are getting 5.2, are 29th. According to Basketball-Reference, there are 117 players who have logged 150 minutes who average assists at a greater rate than that. Additionally, the Rockets are 20th in points from the 1, and they’re 27th in efficiency. In part, that’s because Harden runs the offense, but that can’t happen 48 minutes a game. And to be fair, the Rockets give up the second-lowest efficiency to opposing point guards. Because of that, they essentially tie the battle. But the Rockets need someone to carry the offense and generate opportunities for their shooters when Harden sits. And it’s apparent that that man is not on the roster. This summer, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey told Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle (subscription required): On top of that, we still have our mid-level (exception). And even if we dont sign someone like that now, very often theres players that come free during the season where if you were to have the advantage of having a mid-level you can add them. We have the trade exception, which can add someone up to $8.4 million (in salary). We have I think the best draft pick in the league for someone to trade for (the first-round pick acquired from New Orleans). I think we have the best set of international rights held - guys to either bring over or use in a trade. He is referring to the $8.37 million trade exception they still have from trading Jeremy Lin to the Los Angeles Lakers. Remember that when using a trade exception, the incoming value of players can’t exceed the value of the exception nor can the exception be combined with other exceptions or players to add more value to it. So the biggest contract the Rockets could absorb would be $8.37 million. One potential target is former Rocket and current Phoenix Sun Goran Dragic. If the Suns are out of the playoff hunt and sellers at the trade deadline, they certainly might entertain a first-round pick for Dragic—particularly since he’s probably going to be an unrestricted free agent next summer. By rule, while you can’t combine a contract with a player exception to bring back a larger contract, you can include other players, as long as they constitute a legal trade from the other team’s end. So the Rockets could include one of their intriguing youngsters, like Clint Capela, Nick Johnson or Troy Daniels. Or they could include any combination of the eight second-round picks they either own or are owed between now and 2017. Or they could offer any of the nine players in Europe they own the draft rights to. However, they can’t offer their 2015 pick, as that belongs to the Los Angeles Lakers. So the soonest Houston could offer its top selection is 2017. This all presumes, of course, some sort of assurance that Dragic would extend with the Rockets. Certainly, it seems that a deal there could be worked out, and a starting five of Dragic, Harden, Ariza, Terrence Jones and Howard would make Houston a contender. It’s hard to envision Beverley or Canaan as a long-term solution. Whether it’s Dragic or someone else, don’t be surprised to see the Rockets try and work a deal for another point guard before the season ends. Read more NBA news on BleacherReport #Basketball #NBA #NBASouthwest #HoustonRockets #fantasybasketball
Posted on: Sun, 30 Nov 2014 00:12:25 +0000