How good are judges at predicting the outcome of contests? Or how closely do their scores match the final placement? Now of course, judges are actually judging contests not trying to predict who will win, i.e. they are giving their opinion on the dancing not guessing what the collective opinion will be. Its not a referendum on their judging, especially considering its been stated that ILHC did not give them specific instructions on what to look for, and Im sure we can agree on the value of judges having different opinions. But it could be interesting to look at and it was a request, so here we go! I split the contests from ILHC 2014 into Lindy Hop and Balboa contests. There were only two Bal contests and fewer judges, and fewer judges means a judges vote has more impact on the placement. And its finals only. For Lindy Hop, Helena was the best at predicting the winner, Michael Faltesek was the worst. For Balboa, Kate Hedin was the best, Nalla Kim was the worst. Interestingly, Valerie was much better at predicting the winner of Bal contests than Lindy Hop contests. It would be interesting to look at contest results from a larger Balboa event or a larger set of Balboa contests to see if that makes a difference. But for now, this is the data I have.
Posted on: Thu, 25 Sep 2014 16:31:02 +0000
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