How will climate change affect food security? Mitigating the effects on agriculture will require creative adaptations, per IPCC report (with free access to related research) By Elaine van Ommen Kloeke, PhD | Posted on 3 December 2014 overview of the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security. Adaptation of our crops and farming methods will be key to a sustainable future. Source: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)The Future of Food and Farming: 2030 – a graphic overview of the impact of climate change on agriculture and food security. Adaptation of our crops and farming methods will be key to a sustainable future. Source: Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)Global climate change influences all aspects of our daily lives, and it will for many years to come. The challenge for each individual, institute, company and government is to not only identify the risks but also adapt and mitigate the effects to ensure a future for all on planet Earth. Although not all effects of climate change may turn out negative, most sectors will need to find ways to deal with the effects. Areas at high risk are agriculture and food security. To assess all aspects of climate change and its impact and formulate realistic strategies to mitigate these effects, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded in 1988. Last month, the IPCC released its 5th Assessment Report (AR5), which synthesizes and evaluates research related to impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate change since the previous Assessment Reports. Food security and food production systems The report was developed by the IPCCs three working groups. Working Group II focused on two very challenging and interrelated topics; agriculture and food security. Chapter 7, Food security and food production systems, details the current effects of climate change, the expected decline in crop production by 2030 as a result of climate change, and what farmers can do to mitigate some of the negative impacts. As stated by the chapter authors: The questions for this chapter are how far climate and its change affect current food production systems and food security and the extent to which they will do so in the future. A key conclusion of the authors is that climate challenge will increase the risk of reduced crop productivity associated with heat and drought stress. Negative impacts in average crop and pasture yield will likely be clearly visible by 2030. For example, in parts of Brazil, rice and wheat yields are could decline by 14%, according to their forecast. To mitigate the effects, they recommend the following crop management adaptations: Cultivar adjustment (e.g., developing new crop varieties that are tolerant to drought, heat and salt via breeding or genetic modification) Planting date adjustment Combined planting date and cultivar adjustment Irrigation optimization Fertilizer optimization Planting of mangrove seedlings in Funafala, an islet of Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. Source: © David J. Wilson for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5)Planting of mangrove seedlings in Funafala, an islet of Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. Source: © David J. Wilson for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5)Also changes should be made to livestock and fisheries practices, such as restoring mangrove forests to create sustainable breeding sites for essential fish populations. The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) made a comprehensive overview of the above mentioned possible effects of climate change on food and farming for 2030. The overview, for instance, shows which parts of the world will be affected by climate change and what the effects will likely be for their food and farming systems by 2030. Adaptations in the way we produce food, farm our lands and treat our environment will be key to mitigating the effects and ensuring food security. The results of the food security chapter may not be that alarming for most experts, according to some of the editors of Elseviers Agronomy journals. However, it is still very important that meaningful adaptations to agricultural practices and attempts to limit emissions are made to ensure the risk posed by climate change on agriculture, and thus food security, is manageable. After just one week of its release, the food chapter was downloaded more than 25,000 times, and the WGII Summary for Policymakers was downloaded more than 500,000 times. Worldwide scientific collaboration — and volunteers The IPCC only has about a dozen full-time staff. The real work on the reports is done by unpaid scientific volunteers around the world, contributing as authors or reviewers. For instance, for AR5 Working Group II alone, there were 308 authors from 70 countries and a total of 50,492 review comments. A large percentage of the relevant scientific community is thus involved as volunteers, spending valuable time creating these high-impact reports.
Posted on: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 03:44:47 +0000
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