I am going to state my opinion as well on this, David Saurer is - TopicsExpress

I am going to state my opinion as well on this, David Saurer is right, there is a lot of uncertainty, and highly unexpected uncertainty this close to the event in the models. The Storm Prediction Center has some of the best forecasters in all of the Nation, but even they can miss things, find things, and such, like the rest of us. This event has RED FLAGS all over it for me, and even with the deviation in the models, I am taking every precaution I can before the storm. I am worried that if the cloud cover does clear out enough (doesnt even have to be a fully clear day) that the heat will create a higher instability, and re-raise us back up to that 45% and maybe include a hatched area. That said, many questions remain, and I am waiting on the rapid refresh systems to come into it before I make my decisions on chasing.

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