I consider this a great summation of the possibilities for next weeks storm system, written by the NWS forecaster in the Milwaukee area. The same concerns apply here as they do in SE WI for next week, and since I couldnt have stated this any better, I present it to you now in its unfiltered state. Its not super technical so I think it will make sense even to meteorological newbies!! LOL AT THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE IS LOTS OF CHATTER OUT THERE ABOUT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. WE HAVE 3 PRIMARY MODELS TO USE AT THIS POINT. THE GFS TRACKS AND DEEPENS THE LOW UP OVER FAR NRN WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW IN IMPACT FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH COLD ADVECTION KICKING IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION OVER A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD. THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FROM THE EUROPEAN ECMWF MODEL. IT HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A VERY RAPID DEEPENING...MAY REACH BOMB STATUS...WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS OCCURS FARTHER EAST... TRACKING FROM OHIO TO LAKE HURON. THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE EVEN LESS IMPACT AS THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP WOULD STAY MOSTLY TO OUR EAST. WE WOULD JUST SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH SOME VERY STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT ACCUMS WOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN EVEN THE GFS. THE THIRD SOLUTION IS THE CANADIAN GEM AND IT/S TRACK LOOKS LIKE BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...TRACKING THE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH TIME. THIS TRACK WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...POTENTIALLY BRINGING HIGHER ACCUMULATING SNOWS THAT WOULD INTRODUCE TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS QUITE LOW AT THIS POINT. THE CURRENT FCST IS HEDGED TOWARD THE GFS SINCE IT/S ENSEMBLE SUITE AND OPERATIONAL TRACK HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. I am leaning toward the GFS at this point-- meaning mostly rain, followed by some snow showers Tuesday night into Xmas eve.
Posted on: Fri, 19 Dec 2014 21:59:31 +0000
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