I dont usually do long write-ups of thunderstorm setups these days but I might make an exception this time for tomorrow (Sat). Heres how I think itll pan out: ~Partly cloudy (mostly higher thinner cloud) & humid~ ~Overnight tonight/early a.m. outside chance thunder near coast~ ~Higher chance overnight thunderstorms over Downs~ ~If morning cloud isnt too thick, widespread storms starting early~ ~If morning cloud very thick, expect delay in storms~ ~Thunderstorms could be severe for some places with intense rain~ First the cons: The European models suggesting broken morning cloud cover (mostly high but some mid & low), some of which is probably due to convective cloud debris from overnight/early morning activity and some from the upper trough itself. There could also be some morning precipitation in some places. The surface and upper trough being inland may also mean the focus is further inland. Now the pros: If the morning high cloud cover is very thin cirrus or theres less than expected, the forcing from the upper trough, high instability, moisture and convergence between NNE and NNW winds inland of the coast during the middle of the day should be enough for widespread activity, possibly ramping up pretty early in the day. If this turns out to be the case, theres reasonable shear and some nice wind structures with height. The steering winds also pick up by tomorrow so most of the taller convection should come in from the NNW with any severe cells coming more from a W type direction (or from the NNE for any right-movers). Theres also the chance some activity may initiate over the coastal plains themselves due to the instability. The 1st image shows the rainfall that fell in the 24hrs to 9am this morning while the 2nd and 3rd images are model-generated graphics for Sat (Ken):
Posted on: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 08:23:19 +0000
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